Now let’s take a look at where precious metals stand, starting with gold, which leads the overall complex.

After rebounding sharply from its $3,900 to $4,100 support zone and breaking above the downtrend line that had been in effect for much of the 2026 correction, gold is now firmly within its $4,300 to $4,600 resistance zone, which formed over a nine-month period from the key highs and lows between October and June.

This recent price action is all very encouraging, and there is a strong likelihood that the correction that began in January is now over and that gold, along with precious metals in general, will resume its long-term bull market through the end of the year and beyond. That said, I would like to see gold completely push above its $4,300 to $4,600 resistance zone for even greater assurance that the correction is indeed behind us.

To learn more about support and resistance zones, I recommend reading my two-part tutorial (Part 1 and Part 2).

As I said in my midweek update, gold became a bit extended after its 8% rally since the start of August, and I recommended that traders be cautious and avoid jumping in aggressively, if not already long, until a shallow pullback or consolidation occurred. Sure enough, that consolidation began during the last few days of the week and probably needs a bit more time to develop.

This is all good and healthy behavior that is setting the stage for the next leg of the rally, and a breakout from this consolidation should provide another solid opportunity to get on board. I will notify you when that occurs.

As a reminder, I firmly believe that precious metals and miners are in a long-term bull market that began only in April 2024 and has at least another eight years to run based on historical cycles. I believe the January-to-August correction was merely a healthy pause within that bull market rather than the beginning of a new bear market. Read my report from a few days ago, where I explained this thesis in detail.

Over the past few weeks, silver has rebounded precisely off its $45 to $55 support zone, broken above the downtrend line that had been in effect since late January, and is now firmly within its $60 to $70 resistance zone, formed by the key lows between December and June.

This is all very encouraging behavior that I take as a sign that the correction is likely over, though I would like to see a solid close above the $60 to $70 resistance zone to feel even more confident in that assertion.

As I said in my midweek update, silver was a bit extended after its 10% rally, so I urged caution for any traders considering entering a new position, lest they get caught in a pullback or consolidation, even if it proves to be shallow and brief. Indeed, that consolidation began toward the end of the week, but so far it has been healthy, and the recent breakout above the downtrend line remains fully intact.

I would like to see a bit more consolidation to create another solid, low-risk entry opportunity for traders looking to go long upon the next breakout, and I will let you know when that occurs.

As a reminder, my position is that silver is still in the very early stages of a long-term bull market with many more years left to run, and that the correction since January was not at all the end of that bull market, but simply a pause after two very strong bullish years. I explained this thesis in detail in my recent silver report.

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I am writing these reports to encourage my subscribers and explain why the precious metals bull market remains very much intact, and why the correction that began in January was merely a pause or normal cooling-off period rather than the beginning of a new long-term bear market.

In today’s report, I want to discuss the concept of capital rotation between stocks and precious metals and explain why it confirms that the precious metals bull market is still only in its early stages and has much further to run. I will also show how the previous secular precious metals bull markets of the 1970s and 2000s experienced significant corrections of their own, just like the one we have experienced since January, which is now likely over, as I explained in my latest technical update.

To understand today’s report, I first want to explain that historically, stocks and precious metals have essentially acted as counterbalances to one another. When one is in a secular, or long-term, bull market, the other is typically in a secular bear market, and vice versa, as capital rotates from one to the other in recurring cycles that typically last at least a decade.

The long-term chart below of the gold-to-Dow ratio, shown on a logarithmic scale, illustrates this concept very clearly. When the ratio is declining, stocks are outperforming gold, while when the ratio is rising, gold is outperforming stocks. I chose the Dow for this comparison simply because it has the longest history, but the same concept applies to other major stock indices, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.

Periods when stocks outperformed gold, as shown by the green trendlines, include the 1930s through the 1960s, the early 1980s through the early 2000s, and the early 2010s through the mid-2020s. Conversely, periods when gold outperformed stocks, as shown by the gold trendlines, include the late 1960s through the early 1980s, the early 2000s through the early 2010s, and the current cycle of gold outperformance, which began in April 2024.

The way to determine when a new cycle has begun is by watching for a break of the prevailing trendline. When a green trendline is broken to the upside, it signals the start of a new secular bull market in gold and a secular bear market or period of stagnation in stocks. Conversely, when a gold trendline is broken to the downside, it signals the start of a new secular bull market in stocks and a secular bear market in gold.

While I focused on gold in the previous chart and section, this capital rotation between stocks and gold also applies to silver, as well as precious metals mining stocks. That is not surprising, as both are highly correlated with gold and typically follow its long-term trends.

The chart below shows the silver-to-Dow ratio and reveals the same recurring cycles, lasting more than a decade, in which silver outperforms stocks and then stocks outperform silver. Most importantly, a new secular bull market in silver began in early 2024, when the ratio broke above the green downtrend line that had been in effect since the early 2010s.

Now I want to zoom in on the gold-to-Dow ratio chart I showed at the beginning of this report to show you where it currently stands and why the secular bull market in gold, and thus the overall precious metals complex, remains firmly intact. Far from being in a new secular bear market, the weakness in the first half of 2026 was simply a normal correction along the way to much higher prices in the decade ahead.

As illustrated in the chart below, a new secular bull market in gold and precious metals began in April 2024, when the gold-to-Dow ratio closed above the green downtrend line that had been in effect since 2011. That breakout marked the beginning of a new era of precious metals outperforming stocks, with a new gold uptrend line now forming beneath the ratio as it continues to advance.

From the start of the bull market in early 2024 through January 2026, gold surged from roughly $2,000 an ounce to $5,600, a gain of 180% in less than two years. That is a scorching performance for gold, which, as a reminder, is a safe-haven asset, not a hot tech stock. During that same period, silver exploded from roughly $26 to $121, a staggering 365% gain, which is truly an outstanding performance.

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Even more impressive is that the precious metals complex has managed these gains in the face of yet another rebound in energy prices. Last week’s optimism over an imminent peace deal with Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has once again turned to pessimism as peace talks have reached a stalemate, with Iran making a stiff list of demands that includes hundreds of billions of dollars in war reparations and restrictions on U.S.-aligned ships traveling through the strait. President Trump has countered with his own list of demands, including reparations from Iran for those who have died during the conflict.

As of now, the Trump administration has shifted its approach toward Iran away from heavy missile attacks and toward intensifying economic pressure, essentially trying to wait Iran out to see whether the country’s political regime will eventually crumble under the strain or be toppled by a domestic revolt or popular uprising. That was the original hope at the start of the war, but it never materialized as expected.

Due to growing skepticism over the prospects of an imminent peace deal, in a sharp reversal from last week’s optimism, energy prices have rebounded strongly. Over the past week, WTI crude oil has surged nearly 11%, Brent crude 13%, RBOB gasoline 11%, and heating oil/diesel 16%. Meanwhile, global oil inventories continue to sink to dangerously low levels, while the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to its lowest level since 1983.

Remarkably, despite the sharp rebound in energy prices over the past week, the odds of a Fed rate hike in 2026 have fallen from their late-July peak of 78% to just 55% today. That decline has been aided by last week’s three weak U.S. jobs reports, as I explained in my weekend update, as well as Wednesday’s U.S. CPI report, which came in line with expectations and showed inflation easing for the second consecutive month, with headline CPI rising at a 3.4% annual rate in July.

The next major potential market-moving catalyst is another key inflation report: the U.S. July Producer Price Index (PPI), due Thursday morning. It is expected to come in at around 4.9% year over year, cooling from June’s 5.5% pace. Inflation reports are being watched more closely than usual by market participants as they attempt to gauge the odds of further Fed rate hikes, with the next Fed meeting scheduled for September 16.

My point in highlighting these interest rate expectations is that precious metals, as non-yielding assets, are highly sensitive to them. The rapid rise in rate expectations in recent months, driven by the Iran war and the resulting surge in energy prices, has been a major source of downward pressure on precious metals.

Now let’s take a look at where precious metals stand, starting with gold, which leads the overall complex.

After testing the key $3,900 to $4,100 support zone from late June through early August, gold was unable to break below it and instead staged a powerful rebound. It has now erased much of its sharp June selloff, which is a very relieving and encouraging development that greatly increases the chances that the correction that began in January is finally over and that the long-term bull market can resume its upward trajectory.

Gold is now deep into its $4,300 to $4,600 resistance zone, which formed over a nine-month period from the key highs and lows between October and June. That is a very encouraging sign, though I would like to see gold break fully above this zone for even greater confirmation of this bullish change in trend. Assuming that occurs, the odds of the next leg higher and a strong rally into year-end, not just for gold but for the entire precious metals complex, will increase significantly.

With gold having surged roughly $500 per ounce in just a couple of weeks, it is now a bit extended in the short term, increasing the chances of a brief pullback or consolidation phase. For those looking to enter trades in either gold or gold mining stocks (as opposed to stacking bullion), I would therefore exercise some caution for now and wait for a brief cool-off period, then look to buy upon a breakout from that consolidation, especially since there is still significant resistance overhead that needs to be cleared.

Rebounds from major corrections like the one we have experienced since January are a process and rarely occur in a straight line. Instead, they typically unfold through a series of rallies followed by consolidations, then further rallies as each successive resistance zone or level is surpassed like another hurdle.

The final and most important hurdle is the peak reached just before the correction began. Once that level is decisively surpassed, the asset enters blue-sky territory with no obvious resistance overhead, allowing it to rally much more freely than during the process of digging its way out of a correction.

It’s also important to remember that we are still deep in the dog days of summer, with trading volume across the financial markets remaining very light and trading conditions unusually thin, which tends to amplify reactions to economic data and headlines. Once summer ends and volume begins to normalize in September, I believe the odds of a successful and sustained rally will greatly increase, as volume is the lifeblood of the financial markets.

To learn more about support and resistance zones, I recommend reading my two-part tutorial (Part 1 and Part 2).

Further good news for the nascent gold rebound can be seen in global exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows, with gold ETFs attracting $3 billion in net inflows last week, marking the fifth consecutive week of positive net inflows:

Moving on to silver, we can see that it has rebounded strongly off its key $45 to $55 support zone, closed above the downtrend line that had been in effect since late January, and is now pushing deep into the important $60 to $70 resistance zone formed by the key lows between December and June.

I am impressed with silver’s recent price action and am now waiting for it to fully surpass its $60 to $70 resistance zone for even greater assurance that the correction is behind us, though that is already my suspicion. Each successive push above resistance following a correction increases the odds of a successful return to the long-term trend, which in silver’s case remains firmly upward.

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I am well aware that this is an extremely broad topic and that entire books could be written about it, but the basic materials and commodities boom is rapidly heating up again, and I want to get this series of reports out as quickly as possible so subscribers who are interested can potentially take advantage of these opportunities while it is still early. For that reason, I have made this report as efficient as possible while still covering the overall gist of the topic and being as thorough as time allows.

I want to start by explaining that although the broad U.S. stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, is often viewed as one single index or market, the reality is that it is comprised of 11 distinct sectors: communication services, consumer discretionary, consumer staples, energy, financials, health care, industrials, materials (or basic materials), real estate, technology, and utilities. Each sector has its own unique characteristics and tends to perform differently at various stages of the business cycle.

The screenshot below shows the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 along with the popular and highly liquid ETFs offered by State Street that track each one, making it very convenient to invest in a particular sector or theme:

Today’s report focuses on the basic materials sector, which is comprised of companies involved in the sourcing, processing, and distribution of raw materials. This includes commodities and materials such as copper, gold, silver, fertilizer, lumber, concrete, glass, and other building materials. In other words, basic materials is the sector where commodity and natural resource stocks are found, excluding energy, which is classified as its own separate sector.

Since I started this newsletter almost two years ago, I have been expecting a secular bull market in commodities over the decade ahead, also known as a commodities supercycle. I believe the boom in gold, silver, and their mining stocks that began in early 2024 kicked off that supercycle and was just a harbinger of an even greater boom in commodities and basic materials to come, similar to the powerful bull markets of the 1970s and 2000s.

What has accelerated the timeframe and urgency of me kicking off this series of reports is what I am now seeing beneath the surface of the market. Technology stocks, particularly semiconductors, went from leading the stock market rally this spring to cooling off rapidly over the past month, while the best-performing sector over both the past month and the past week, as shown below, has actually been basic materials.

This sector is often considered boring and tends to fly under the radar, but it is now showing notable signs of strength and resilience as investors look beyond technology for bargains, promising new themes, and safe havens from tech volatility and overvaluation.

The most straightforward and easiest way to gain exposure to the overall basic materials sector is through the State Street® Materials Select Sector SPDR® ETF, which trades under the symbol XLB.

Of course, as I mentioned earlier, there are individual industry groups under the basic materials umbrella, including precious metals miners and base metals miners, which I will cover in separate reports in this series over the next few days. For today, however, my primary focus is XLB and the broader basic materials sector.

As shown in the graphic below, the XLB basic materials ETF is comprised of 49.45% chemicals-related stocks, 21.37% metals and mining stocks, 16.14% containers and packaging stocks, and 13.04% construction materials stocks:

The table below shows the individual stocks held by the XLB ETF and their respective weightings. As you can see, its holdings include major gold and copper miners such as Newmont Corporation, the world’s largest gold mining company, and Freeport-McMoRan, one of the world’s largest publicly traded copper producers, along with several agricultural and fertilizer companies. I expect these types of companies to perform very well during the commodities supercycle of the next decade or so.

One of the benefits of investing in the basic materials sector is that it typically benefits from and acts as a hedge against inflation, which particularly appeals to me because I believe the inflation genie was let out of the bottle following the 2020 pandemic.

That can be seen in the U.S. inflation rate, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which averaged just 1.6% during the pre-pandemic period from 2012 to 2019 compared with roughly 3.1% during the post-pandemic years from 2023 through mid-2026, nearly double the previous rate.

Inflation has remained persistently elevated, and I expect that trend to continue and even worsen in the years ahead as our heavily indebted government and society are increasingly forced to rely on various forms of money creation (or “digital money printing”) to remain propped up.

And, of course, there is good reason to believe that the CPI understates the true rate of inflation, as demonstrated by John Williams’s Shadow Government Statistics, which estimates inflation using historical methodologies and shows it running far hotter than today’s official figures.

With all the hand-wringing in our society over inflation, and ordinary people casting blame on the opposing political party, almost nobody focuses on its true root cause: the relentless expansion of the money supply, which steadily waters down and debases the currency.

As Nobel Prize-winning economist Milton Friedman famously stated, “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money.”

As the chart below shows, the U.S. M2 money supply has exploded roughly fivefold since 2000, soaring from just $4.7 trillion to $23.2 trillion today. There is no sign of this long-term trend letting up, and I actually expect it to accelerate in the years ahead, helping usher in another inflationary era similar to the 1970s, which was a tremendous period for commodities and basic materials while the rest of the stock and bond market stagnated.

Now I want to show you the long-term chart of the XLB basic materials ETF since 2000. As you can see, it has been in a steady long-term uptrend, thanks to the relentless expansion of the money supply and resulting inflation, with particularly powerful booms during the 2000s commodities supercycle and the post-COVID inflationary years. XLB rose roughly 2.5-fold during both episodes, and after several years of largely treading water, I believe another similar boom is ahead.

So while the basic materials sector has clearly risen over time, the reality is that it has actually lagged the overall stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, for roughly the past 17 years. As shown in the chart below of the ratio between the XLB and SPY ETFs, that prolonged underperformance has left basic materials at its cheapest level relative to the broad stock market since the peak of the dot-com bubble in 2000.

The fact that the basic materials sector is now at its cheapest level relative to the broad stock market since 2000 is no coincidence. We were in a massive tech bubble back then, and I believe we are in another tech bubble today, this time centered on the Magnificent Seven and AI-related stocks.

During technology booms and bubbles, basic materials and commodities typically lag as capital pours into tech-related investments. But when those tech booms end—and they always do—capital flows back into basic materials and commodities, fueling powerful supercycles that typically last around a decade.

While I have focused so far on the XLB basic materials ETF, I also want to show the most well-known commodities index, the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI), because the same bullish setup can clearly be seen there as well, further confirming what I am seeing in XLB. Note: the GSCI includes energy-related commodities while the XLB basic materials ETF does not include energy.

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The precious metals complex exploded higher over the past week, breaking out after a long period of quiet trading throughout July as several major catalysts provided the spark for the move. Those catalysts included the sharp decline in energy prices as the Trump administration seeks to wind down the war with Iran that began in late February, as well as three much weaker-than-expected U.S. labor reports that have greatly reduced the odds of Fed rate hikes in 2026.

Though the details are still being fleshed out and remain very much up in the air, the Trump administration has said that it is close to reaching a deal with Iran that would reopen the economically vital Strait of Hormuz. The deal may entail some measure of Iranian control over the strait, which would be a less-than-ideal outcome compared with what was originally hoped for, but it would at least avoid an even greater quagmire that could potentially drag on for years and result in far higher energy prices and inflation.

As a result of the rising odds of an off-ramp from the war, energy prices have fallen significantly over the past week, with WTI crude oil down approximately 11%, Brent crude down roughly 9%, RBOB gasoline down 6.5%, and heating oil/diesel down 7.5%.

The combination of falling energy prices and three weak U.S. jobs reports over the past week has caused the odds of a Fed rate hike in 2026 to plummet from a peak of 78% the prior week to just 55% now. That sharp decline in rate hike odds has given precious metals a major boost, as non-yielding assets are highly sensitive to changes in interest rate expectations.

On Tuesday, the June JOLTS report showed 7.36 million job openings, down from a revised 7.54 million in May, while Wednesday’s ADP report showed private employers added 44,000 jobs in July, falling short of expectations of 65,000. Friday completed the trifecta, with the July monthly jobs report showing a shocking loss of 23,000 jobs versus expectations for a gain of 83,000.

The next potentially big market mover to keep an eye on is Wednesday’s July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which is particularly important right now because the Fed is far more focused on inflation risks than employment as it determines whether to keep rates where they are or raise them at its remaining meetings this year, with the next meeting on September 16. The year-over-year headline CPI is expected to rise 3.4%, while the core CPI is expected to rise 2.5%, so any significant deviation from those expectations is likely to trigger a major move in the markets.

Now let’s take a look at where precious metals stand, starting with gold, which leads the overall complex.

Over the past week, COMEX gold futures surged $237 per ounce, or 5.70%, to close at $4,401.30, the highest level since gold fell below that mark in early June and its strongest weekly performance since January.

On Friday, gold spiked in response to the much weaker-than-expected U.S. July jobs report, extending the surge that began on Wednesday. Both days saw trading volume well above the recent average, adding further credence to the breakout and showing that big institutional investors are getting behind the move. To learn more about the importance of strong volume during breakouts, read my tutorial on the subject.

Gold is now deep into its $4,300 to $4,600 resistance zone, which formed over a nine-month period from the key highs and lows between October and June. That is a very encouraging sign, though I would like to see gold break fully above this zone for even greater confirmation of this bullish change in trend. Assuming that occurs, the odds of the next leg higher and a strong rally into year-end, not just for gold but for the entire precious metals complex, will increase significantly.

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The stage was set for this surge over the weekend when, at the urging of Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern nations, President Trump called off the next wave of even more devastating attacks on Iran. He then announced, alongside U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, that a U.S.–Iran peace deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached within the next few days.

While there is still considerable confusion around the situation with Iran and details are still being ironed out, reports indicate that Iran denies direct peace talks with the U.S. and is instead negotiating with Oman over a route for ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The financial markets, including the energy market, are treating this as a very positive development. That said, as we have seen in recent months, caution is still warranted.

So far this week, energy prices have fallen sharply, with WTI crude down 13.5%, Brent crude down 11%, RBOB gasoline futures down roughly 11%, and heating oil/diesel down about 10%. The decline in these refined products is especially impactful for inflation and consumer sentiment, and their persistently high prices had been a major source of stress for the inflation-sensitive bond market, which has since seen some relief as energy prices have pulled back.

The decline in energy prices this week, along with two weak U.S. jobs reports, has helped pull 2026 Fed rate hike expectations down to 64% from a peak of 78% a week ago. On Tuesday, the June JOLTS report showed 7.36 million job openings, down from a revised 7.54 million in May, while Wednesday’s ADP report showed private employers added 44,000 jobs in July, falling short of expectations of 65,000.

On Friday, the key monthly nonfarm payrolls report is expected to show job gains of 83,000 in July with an unemployment rate of 4.2%, and it has the potential to be a market mover. That said, the Fed is currently more focused on inflation than on the labor market.

My point in highlighting these interest rate expectations is that precious metals, as non-yielding assets, are highly sensitive to them. The rapid rise in rate expectations in recent months, driven by the Iran war and the resulting surge in energy prices, has been a major source of downward pressure on precious metals. For that reason, I am watching these expectations closely to see whether they trend lower in response to declining energy prices, which has been the case over the past week.

Now let’s take a look at where precious metals stand, starting with gold, which leads the overall complex. As noted earlier, gold surged $173.80 per ounce, or 4.2%, on Wednesday after more than a month of quiet, low-volume trading.

Gold’s surge today is not surprising to me, as I have been showing how it has held above the key $3,900 to $4,100 support zone, which formed at the lows in October and November 2025, and how it failed to break below that support despite multiple short-lived attempts.

What is notable is that gold and other precious metals have become inured to the steady stream of negative news out of the Middle East and the surge in energy prices, yet have continued to hold their ground. I took this as a sign that a great deal of pessimism had already been priced into precious metals, and too much so in fact, especially considering that they are still in a long-term bull market that began in early 2024 and that such bull markets typically last at least a decade.

It’s also worth noting the spike in volume in COMEX futures during today’s surge in gold, which adds further confirmation that this move is legitimate and marks the start of something new. It shows that large institutional capital (or the “smart money”) is behind the move, as I explained in this tutorial.

I am very pleased to see today’s sharp upward move in gold, and there is a strong chance that this marks the end of the correction that began in late January and the start of the next leg of the bull market, especially once trading volume picks up in September as the financial world returns from vacation mode, since healthy volume is typically necessary to push an asset higher.

That said, I am waiting for another form of confirmation in the form of a decisive, high-volume push through the $4,300 to $4,600 resistance zone just overhead, which formed over a nine-month period from the highs and lows between October and June. Assuming that occurs, the odds of the next leg higher and a strong rally into year-end, not just for gold but for the entire precious metals complex, will increase significantly.

To learn more about support and resistance zones, I recommend reading my two-part tutorial (Part 1 and Part 2).

Further confirmation that a major bullish shift is underway for gold is the return of Chinese investor demand. China’s gold-backed ETFs have recorded 14 consecutive days of inflows through Monday, the longest streak since March, attracting more than $1.2 billion over that period.

Moving on to silver, we can see that it surged $2.50 per ounce, or 4.19%, on Wednesday on healthy volume, pushing it back into its $60 to $70 resistance zone that formed from the lows between December and June. This is an excellent development, especially in conjunction with gold’s breakout today.

I am becoming increasingly optimistic that the worst is over for silver and that a new rally is about to begin, but I would still like to see a decisive breakout above the $60 to $70 resistance zone on heavy volume for additional confirmation. As I’ve been saying, we are still in the low-volume summer period, but a rebound in volume in September should be highly beneficial for this nascent rally.

Though many investors became overly pessimistic and threw in the towel on silver after its correction since January, I have remained steadfast in my belief that it is still in a secular bull market that is only about two years old and has at least the better part of a decade to run, taking it into the hundreds of dollars per ounce, as I explained in a recent report.

After a long period in a holding pattern, platinum surged with vigor, rising over 7% on Tuesday and Wednesday on strong volume, and is now back in its $1,700 to $2,000 resistance zone, which formed at key highs and lows since October.

There is a very good chance that brighter days are ahead for platinum, but as with gold and silver, I would like to see it push decisively through the $1,700 to $2,000 resistance zone for further confirmation.

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On the energy front, crude oil started the week weak on hopes of a peace deal with Iran but ended up recouping its early losses to close down just $3.76 per barrel, or 4.16%, for the week. Meanwhile, gasoline fell approximately 3%, while heating oil/diesel rose 1.39%. As a reminder, it is the price of refined products like gasoline and heating oil/diesel that is driving the most inflation concern, as they have remained persistently high even when crude oil dipped sharply, albeit temporarily, in June.

Late on Friday, just minutes before the futures market closed, President Trump announced that the U.S. would launch some of its heaviest attacks yet against Iran in an effort to force a peace deal. That news sent crude oil surging by $2.30, or 2.7%, in the final 10 minutes of trading before the weekend, while stock and Treasury bond futures also moved lower.

Then on Saturday, Trump backed off from the planned attacks at the urging of Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries, while stating that the “perimeters of a deal” had been reached with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, IG Group’s “Weekend Oil” market shows crude down about 6.43% at the time of writing, though it remains to be seen what will actually happen when oil futures open this evening.

This back-and-forth, on-and-off, deal/no-deal, Hormuz open-then-closed pattern has defined this entire chaotic Iran war, which has now dragged on for five months and is becoming truly maddening. It is impossible to predict how this will play out, and every swing in the oil market has had major repercussions across other markets, including stocks, bonds, commodities, and precious metals.

Someone on X asked me whether I’m interested in investing in oil and if the energy sector is better than precious metals, and here was my response:

As I said, I am very interested in the long-term bullish energy thesis, and I plan to publish a report, possibly this week but with no guarantees, outlining my thoughts on that and the energy ETFs and stocks I believe are best positioned to play it. However, I believe energy right now is an especially risky proposition due to the geopolitical volatility and uncertainty, so any exposure I take would be conservative. That said, I do hope to scale it up once this Iran war (hopefully) winds down.

Fed 2026 rate hike expectations dropped from 78% to 67% after Wednesday’s Fed meeting, which resulted in no hike, though expectations have risen significantly in recent months due to the surge in energy costs tied to the Iran war.

In the coming week, we have a series of U.S. labor reports, including the ADP private employment report, initial jobless claims on Thursday, and the key July nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. These have strong potential to move the markets, although the Fed is currently more focused on inflation risks than employment risks.

Something notable I want to point out, and which has been the talk of the financial world over the past few days, is the spike in U.S. government bond yields (and the corresponding sharp decline in bond prices) following the Fed meeting.

This is a sign that bond investors were not pleased with the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady instead of raising them by at least 25 basis points to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched. As a reminder, bonds are particularly sensitive to inflation, with long-duration bonds such as 20- and 30-year Treasuries being the most sensitive to changes in inflation expectations.

30-year Treasury bond yields reached 5.27% by the end of the week, the highest level since 2007. This surge is now threatening a breakout from the triangle pattern that has formed over the past four years, and if confirmed with a solid close, it points to even higher yields and further downside in bond prices in the years ahead.

I have been expecting a bear market in U.S. government bonds and much higher yields in the years ahead due to persistent inflation and the U.S. government’s extreme level of indebtedness. As I wrote in May, publicly held U.S. national debt surpassed 100% of GDP for the first time since World War II, so this recent spike in bond yields is not at all surprising to me.

While there has been a strong narrative lately that inflation and higher bond yields are bearish for precious metals—and I can see how they may create short-term volatility—history shows that the biggest bull markets in commodities and precious metals have occurred alongside the sharpest spikes in bond yields, such as during the inflationary 1970s (as show in the chart below). I view that period as a strong analog for the era we are heading into, which leads me to expect oil, precious metals, and bond yields to rise together while bond prices fall as inflation erodes their value.

The reason I believe surging Treasury bond yields (and falling bond prices) will ultimately be bullish for precious metals is that the U.S. government will be forced to step in and support the bond market by any means necessary, including policies such as yield curve control and other measures that are effectively equivalent to creating new money. That will further erode the purchasing power of the dollar and drive precious metals and other commodities significantly higher.

Now let’s take a look at where precious metals stand, starting with gold, which leads the overall complex. Despite an extremely volatile week filled with confusing crosscurrents, gold continues to hold its ground and gained another 1%. More importantly, the breakout from its triangle two weeks ago remains valid, though I would still like to see stronger upside follow-through.

I believe a new catalyst to drive that move is ahead, whether it be a falling dollar, growing concern over rising Treasury yields, the deflating tech bubble, or something else—we shall soon see.

Gold continues to hold its $3,900 to $4,100 support zone, which formed at the lows in October and November 2025, and I would like to see it decisively push above that zone for further confirmation of strength and the triangle breakout. Encouragingly, it has already reached the top end of this zone but still needs to clear it fully, as it is just a couple of dollars away, with front-month COMEX gold futures closing at $4,098.60 on Friday.

Assuming gold can push decisively above the $3,900 to $4,100 zone, I then want to see it clear the next hurdle at $4,300 to $4,600. A strong break above that zone would be a solid signal that the recent weakness has run its course. This resistance was established over a nine-month period by the highs and lows from October through June.

To learn more about support and resistance zones, I recommend reading my two-part tutorial (Part 1 and Part 2).

Silver is currently sandwiched between its $45 to $55 support zone and the $60 to $70 resistance zone, and I am now looking for further bullish confirmation in the form of a move above that $60 to $70 resistance zone just overhead. A breakout there would allow the rebound to fully gain traction and signal that the correction is over.

As I’ve been saying in my recent updates, the financial markets—including precious metals—are currently in the low-volume, thinly traded summer doldrums, and it may take a pickup in volume after the summer for a sustained upside move to develop, as volume is the lifeblood of the financial markets.

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All things considered, precious metals, while fairly flat in recent weeks, have held their ground well in the face of potentially disruptive catalysts, as I’ll show in the charting portion of this update.

Today’s Fed meeting has overshadowed the U.S.–Iran headlines in recent days, and as largely expected, though not a certainty, the Fed held rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75%, where they have remained since January. The committee made no changes to its policy statement, reaffirmed that inflation remains elevated due to rising energy prices tied to the Middle East conflict, and reiterated its commitment to delivering price stability.

Precious metals breathed a sigh of relief, with spot gold rising $37.67 per ounce, or just under 1%, and spot silver gaining $0.51 per ounce, also just under 1%. Meanwhile, the stock market continued to sell off, with the S&P 500 down 1.77%, the Dow falling 2.22%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 dropping 2.51%.

Energy prices remain persistently high, though they dropped early in the week after President Trump paused his bombing campaign on Iran over the weekend following nearly two weeks of sustained nightly strikes in an effort to restart peace talks.

However, tensions quickly flared again after Iran targeted American forces in the Middle East with ballistic missiles, sending energy prices surging once more and prompting Trump to say, “We’ll be hitting them hard. They’re going to get a beating.”

While crude oil has rebounded throughout July, even more concerning is the persistently high cost of refined products such as gasoline and heating oil/diesel, which have a far greater impact on inflation and consumer psychology. These elevated prices are being driven by disruptions to critical energy infrastructure in the Middle East due to the war, as well as Russia’s diesel export ban.

The surge in energy prices in recent months has steadily pushed up 2026 Fed rate hike expectations, though after today’s meeting those odds fell from yesterday’s high of 78% to 63%. There are three Fed meetings remaining this year in September, October, and December, so all eyes will be on how energy prices and inflation evolve in the months ahead. In the near term, the June PCE report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will be released Thursday morning and has strong potential to move the markets.

While higher interest rate expectations typically put downward pressure on precious metals, since they do not earn a yield, they have held up quite well in spite of that. This resilience suggests that a great deal of pessimism has already been priced in, and I would argue far too excessively, which could set the stage for a sharp rebound if the technical breakouts I discuss next materialize.

Now let’s take a look at where precious metals stand, starting with gold, which leads the overall complex. Early last week, gold broke out of a triangle pattern that many bearish commentators had expected to resolve to the downside, with calls for a move well into the $3,000s. Instead, the opposite occurred, which I view as a clear win.

The breakout remains valid, although there has not yet been much upside follow-through, which could still lie ahead, with the upcoming PCE report serving as a potential catalyst.

It’s also important to remember that we are in the heart of summer, when trading volume is light and conditions are thin as much of Wall Street is in vacation mode, so there is not much “juice” right now to push precious metals significantly higher, though will change as we move into September.

Gold continues to hold its $3,900 to $4,100 support zone, which formed at the lows in October and November 2025, and I want to see it decisively push above that zone as further confirmation of strength and the triangle breakout.

Assuming gold can push decisively above the $3,900 to $4,100 zone, I then want to see it clear the next hurdle at $4,300 to $4,600. A strong break above that zone would be a strong signal that the recent weakness has run its course. This resistance was established over a nine-month period by the highs and lows from October through June.

To learn more about support and resistance zones, I recommend reading my two-part tutorial (Part 1 and Part 2).

Silver has also been holding its ground in recent weeks amid the geopolitical turmoil, and its breakout from the triangle last week remains intact. I am now looking for further bullish confirmation in the form of a move above the $60 to $70 resistance zone just overhead, which would allow the rebound to fully gain traction and signal that the correction is over. As mentioned earlier, it may require trading volume to pick up after the summer for that to occur.

Platinum is still in a holding pattern between its $1,300 to $1,500 support zone and the $1,700 to $2,000 resistance zone.

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My view all along has been that this pullback is simply a healthy and normal cooling-off period following two very strong years, 2024 and 2025, and not the start of a new secular bear market in precious metals like those seen in the 1980s and 2010s.

Unfortunately, a large portion of the precious metals community has sunk into deep pessimism, believing the party is over after just two years and that it’s all downhill from here, so I’m writing these reports to push back against that foolish, fallacious, and short-sighted thinking.

I decided to start this series with a report on silver, but I’ll be covering the other precious metals and the mining industry next, so stay tuned for those as well.

For the past couple of years, a key part of my bullish thesis on silver, though just one of many components, has been the breakout from its massive six-decade cup and handle pattern that began forming back in the 1960s. I started highlighting this pattern even before the breakout occurred in November 2025, and I reiterated how bullish it was once that breakout took place.

Due to the sheer size and magnitude of that pattern, both in terms of price and time, it projects silver reaching at least several hundred dollars per ounce over the next 5 to 10 years. I believe that is fully justified by how cheap it still is relative to multiple yardsticks (as I’ll show later in this report), as well as the global economic bombs that are set to explode in the coming years.

The breakout from silver’s cup and handle pattern occurred when it surpassed the key $50 resistance level in the fall of 2025, a level that has now become support, and that breakout remains completely valid even though silver has pulled back from its $121 peak in January. As you may recall, $50 marked the peaks of the silver bull markets in both 1980 and 2011, after which silver fell into bear markets, but not this time.

That is a sign that something very big is unfolding and that silver’s bull market is much closer to its beginning than its end. In other words, the party is just getting started, so it’s not time to be thinking about it winding down anytime soon.

And yes, silver got a bit ahead of itself in the short term in January, which I warned about at that time, and it has since pulled back, but it’s important to remember that it remains above that key $50 support level, which means that the overall bull market is still completely alive and well.

The pullback since January was simply a re-test of the breakout from its cup and handle pattern, and I expect silver to soon resume its upward trajectory now that the speculative excesses have been flushed out.

There is a way to measure short-term speculative excesses using an indicator known as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which I’ve applied to silver’s weekly chart below. As you can see, silver became extremely overbought in January after roughly tripling in six months, which signaled a cooling-off period to follow.

It’s important to understand that this is completely normal market behavior. I’ve previously shown that every powerful bull market in history features this pattern of surges followed by pullbacks or consolidation, and there is no reason to expect this bull market in silver to be any different.

After six months of correction, silver is no longer overbought and is sitting just above its $50 support level, which was the former resistance of the long-term cup and handle pattern. That tells us this re-test of the breakout was successful and did exactly what it was supposed to do, which is flush out the speculative excesses, namely the fast-money traders who rushed in when things got hot in December and January and likely had little to no interest in silver when I first identified the early signs of a new bull market in the spring of 2024.

Now I know you’re probably thinking silver must touch that $50 support level for this re-test to be complete, but that’s not a given and there’s no ironclad rule that says it has to happen. That’s exactly why I publish my regular tactical analysis (click here for my most recent one), where I’m focused on determining when the correction is truly over and when the next leg of the bull market has begun.

Now I want to address the other reasons why silver has much further to rise, why January 2026 was not the end of the bull market, and why the several hundred dollar per ounce projection from the cup and handle pattern is quite realistic, by showing just how cheap silver still is across several reliable yardsticks.

The first yardstick I will use is the silver-to-U.S. M2 money supply ratio, indexed to 100, which is essentially a way of adjusting for inflation, and in my view a far more accurate one than the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is well known for understating inflation.

Regarding the use of the M2 money supply as a form of inflation adjustment, as Nobel Prize–winning economist Milton Friedman famously stated, “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.”

According to the chart below, the silver-to-M2 money supply ratio reached as high as 1,008 in 1980 and 171 in 2011, but is now just 77, which shows that silver still has tremendous upside potential if it is to match its prior peaks.

And as I’ll explain later in this report, I believe this bull market in silver will not only match but blow past its 1980 peak for multiple reasons, most importantly because our debt burden is far larger today than it was back then.

The next chart shows the silver-to-S&P 500 ratio, which is highly relevant because precious metals and stocks have historically acted as counterweights to each other, with capital rotating between them in recurring cycles that typically last over a decade, as I explained in this report.

The silver-to-S&P 500 ratio, indexed to 100, peaked at 2,007 in 1980 and 181 in 2011, but is now just 37, which further confirms that silver has much further to run in this bull market.

This is especially true given that the S&P 500 and the broader U.S. stock market are in the largest bubble in history, as evidenced by virtually every valuation metric, including the Buffett Indicator and the Shiller P/E ratio.

When the stock market bubble inevitably bursts, I see precious metals as the primary beneficiary, not Treasury bonds, the U.S. dollar, or real estate, as enormous amounts of capital flows out of the bloated stock market and into precious metals, sending them to the stratosphere. I am projecting at least $300 to $500 per ounce for silver and $15,000 per ounce for gold.

The silver-to-gold ratio, indexed to 100, also confirms that silver is quite cheap relative to its history. It reached 262 in both 1968 and 1980, and 129 in 2011, but is just 56 today, which shows that silver has significant room to rise and is not richly valued by any measure.

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Energy prices continued to rise, with light crude up 9.18%, gasoline nearly 2%, and heating oil/diesel up 4%, though they were even higher on Thursday before easing somewhat on Friday after Pakistan sought to restart peace talks. As a result, higher inflation expectations pushed U.S. Treasury yields to their highest levels in three years, with the 30-year yield reaching 5.16%.

The chart below shows the sharp rebound in energy prices after peace talks between the U.S. and Iran all but failed and the war re-escalated. Of particular concern is the persistently high prices of refined products like gasoline and heating oil/diesel, which didn’t decline as much as crude during the now-failed talks in June and have a much greater impact on inflation and consumer psychology.

The worsening situation in the Iran war, and the resulting surge in energy prices, pushed 2026 U.S. Fed rate hike expectations up to 73%, from as low as 51% just last week after June CPI and PPI inflation data came in cooler than expected.

Higher interest rate expectations tend to put short-term pressure on precious metals, which do not earn any yield (not that I view that as a negative, as they excel as a hedge against monetary debasement and crisis, which I firmly believe lies ahead).

Now let’s take a look at where precious metals stand, starting with gold, which leads the overall complex. Despite a rough week marked by surging energy prices, rising inflation expectations, a stronger U.S. dollar, higher bond yields, and increasing rate hike expectations, gold held its ground and still managed to rise 1.35%. While that may not seem overly impressive at first glance, it’s actually quite notable given the backdrop, and may be a sign that gold is starting to tune out those headwinds.

As I showed on Tuesday, gold broke out of its triangle pattern to the upside, which I view as a victory, especially with many pessimistic commentators calling for a downside break that would have sent gold deep into the $3,000s.

And despite gold’s pullback on Thursday amid the new risk of a Houthi blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the resulting spike in energy prices, it rebounded on Friday, meaning the breakout from the triangle pattern remains intact, as I’ll show in more detail shortly.

Gold continues to hold its $3,900 to $4,100 support zone, which formed at the lows in October and November 2025, and I want to see it decisively push above that zone as further confirmation of strength and the triangle breakout.

Assuming gold can push decisively above the $3,900 to $4,100 zone, I then want to see it clear the next hurdle at $4,300 to $4,600. A strong break above that zone would be a strong signal that the recent weakness has run its course. This resistance was established over a nine-month period by the highs and lows from October through June.

To learn more about support and resistance zones, I recommend reading my two-part tutorial (Part 1 and Part 2).

Another point to keep in mind for gold and precious metals right now is that we’re deep in the dog days of summer, and trading volume is very low and thin as much of Wall Street is in vacation mode, in the Hamptons or at the beach. As a result, it may take until after the summer for volume to return and support a sustained rally. It’s important to remember that volume is the lifeblood of the markets.

Taking a closer look at gold’s breakout from the triangle pattern, it broke out on Tuesday, extended the move on Wednesday, pulled back on Thursday (thanks, Houthi rebels!), and then recovered slightly on Friday.

While Thursday’s setback was frustrating, the reality is that the breakout from this triangle pattern remains intact and valid, which is encouraging. However, as I’ve been saying, there is still significant resistance overhead that needs to be cleared for this nascent rebound to gain real traction and become sustainable.

Moving on to silver, we can see it rose nearly 5% during this challenging week, and despite Thursday’s setback, the breakout from the triangle pattern remains fully intact. I would much rather be in this position than facing a downside break, which is what many bearish commentators were expecting.

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While this is a very encouraging development and a likely sign that the correction since January has come to an end, further confirmation is still needed before making that call, which I’ll cover in today’s important update.

Today was an unusual day in the financial markets because several relationships that had been in place since the start of the Iran war have shifted, which is a sign of potentially big changes. Most notably, precious metals were up significantly on a day when energy prices, the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, and Fed interest rate expectations also rose sharply.

Since the start of the Iran war in late February, precious metals have been pummeled by surging energy prices, as that drove higher inflation expectations, which in turn pushed up interest rate expectations, something that often puts pressure on non-yielding assets like precious metals (as I explained here).

In addition, that combination of higher energy prices, inflation expectations, and interest rate expectations has pushed the U.S. dollar higher, which has also added downward pressure on precious metals, as the dollar and precious metals generally have an inverse relationship.

The continued rise in energy prices, driven by the sharp recent escalation of the war with Iran, has pushed expectations for 2026 Fed rate hikes over the past few days from 52% to 61%:

So, against that backdrop of surging energy prices, rising inflation expectations, higher Fed rate expectations, and climbing Treasury yields (with the 30-year yield just hitting a nearly three-year high of 5.13%), it’s very encouraging to see precious metals stage a meaningful rebound and technical breakout in the face of it.

That may be a sign they are ready to tune out the negativity and continue their secular bull market, which I believe remains very much intact despite the recent challenges.

Also, I want to point out that during past secular commodities bull markets, such as the 1970s and the 2000s, energy prices and precious metals rose in tandem while bond yields surged, as I explained in this report. I believe we are heading into a similar environment, so it wouldn’t be too surprising to see them move higher together going forward.

Now let’s take a look at where precious metals stand, starting with gold, which leads the overall complex. Gold rose approximately $70 today, or 1.75%, rebounding off its $3,900 to $4,100 support zone, which was established by the lows in October and November 2025.

Next, I want to see gold fully exit the $3,900 to $4,100 zone with a solid close above $4,100 (it’s currently just below that at $4,086 in COMEX futures). After that, the next hurdle is the $4,300 to $4,600 resistance zone. A decisive break above that would signal that the recent weakness has run its course. This resistance was established over a nine-month period by the highs and lows from October through June.

To learn more about support and resistance zones, I recommend reading my two-part tutorial (Part 1 and Part 2).

What’s most exciting about today’s action is that gold broke out to the upside from a triangle pattern that formed over the past month. Many commentators feared it would break to the downside and send prices into the mid-$3,000s or even lower, but I took a more optimistic view, as I explained in my update on Sunday.

This breakout in gold is an excellent start and likely a sign of further bullish action ahead, but as I mentioned earlier, there is still a significant amount of resistance overhead that I want to see cleared.

As each level is broken, I will become increasingly confident that the correction is over and that the uptrend is resuming (not that I ever doubted the long-term bull market in precious metals, of course).

Silver also had a strong day, rising $2.40 per ounce, or 4.24%, launching its rebound right off the top of the $45 to $55 support zone I’ve been highlighting over the past month. This support zone was established by the highs and lows of October and November 2025.

The next hurdle is the $60 to $70 resistance zone just overhead, which needs to be cleared to confirm that the correction has run its course. This zone was established by the lows from December through June.

Like gold, silver also broke out of its triangle pattern today, which is quite encouraging, as many bearish commentators had been expecting a breakdown that would send prices below $50.

Today’s breakout increases the odds that the worst is over for silver and that further bullish action lies ahead. That said, as I mentioned earlier, I still want to see the $60 to $70 resistance zone cleared to gain greater confidence. Even so, this is an excellent start, and it’s encouraging to see an upside breakout rather than a breakdown.

In line with gold and silver, platinum rose 2.22% today, though it remains sandwiched between its $1,300 to $1,500 support zone and the $1,700 to $2,000 resistance zone.

I would like to see it clear that resistance to gain greater confidence that the correction is over and that the trend has turned upward once again.

Palladium rose 1.45% today, though it remains within its $1,100 to $1,400 support zone, which was established by the highs and lows of last summer.

A decisive move above this zone would be an encouraging sign that the correction is over and that the trend is turning upward once again.

Gold miners, as represented by the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX), broke out to the upside of their triangle pattern today after a brief false breakdown on Thursday, Friday, and Monday.

I am encouraged to see this pattern resolve to the upside, especially in the face of rising energy prices, which tend to weigh on miners since energy is one of their largest input costs.

In addition, GDX continues to hold its $68 to $84 support zone, and I would like to see it push decisively above this zone to confirm that the recent weakness has run its course.

Assuming that occurs, opening up strong reward-to-risk opportunities in gold mining stocks once again, I intend to spend more time covering individual miners that I find compelling, rather than relying solely on ETFs, which I am currently using as a proxy for the industry to gauge when the correction has ended.

Silver miners, as represented by the Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL), also broke out to the upside of their triangle pattern today after a brief false breakdown, similar to what occurred with gold miners.

Today’s action in silver miners, alongside strength in silver itself, is very encouraging, and I am now looking for SIL to push decisively above its $62 to $80 support zone to help confirm that the correction has run its course and that the trend is turning upward once again.

Next, let’s take a look at the U.S. Dollar Index, which is an important influence on precious metals and commodities and often, though not always, trades inversely with them.

Today’s surge in energy prices and interest rates drove a strong move higher in the U.S. Dollar Index, pushing it back out of the broadening pattern that has developed over the past year.

The implication of this move, assuming it holds, is that the dollar is likely to move higher in the near term. However, precious metals and commodities didn’t seem to care today, and the reality is that there have been periods in the past when both the dollar and precious metals have rallied together, particularly during flights to safe havens. That may be happening once again.

If you’d like to track the U.S. Dollar Index yourself, you can do so using this free chart from Finviz.

I have also been tracking the euro for additional insight into the attempted Dollar Index breakout, as it typically trades inversely with the dollar and often moves in positive correlation with precious metals.

Over the past year, the euro traded within a 1.14000 to 1.20000 range. It recently dipped below the 1.14000 support level but has since reclaimed it, and is now testing that level again amid today’s resurgence in the dollar.

If the euro breaks down, that would add further credence to the idea of a stronger dollar in the near term, but that remains to be seen as it is currently just teetering on the edge.

If you’d like to monitor the euro yourself, you can do so using this free chart from Finviz.

To conclude, today’s action in precious metals, with upside breakouts from the triangle patterns that formed over the past month, is quite encouraging, especially given the risk that they could have broken lower. This likely reflects peak pessimism, particularly because precious metals were able to rally despite rising energy prices, interest rates, and a stronger dollar, all of which had acted as bearish forces since the Iran war began.

That said, before becoming more enthusiastic, I would like to see precious metals and mining ETFs break above the key resistance zones just overhead, as that would provide important additional confirmation that the correction since January has likely run its course and that the short-term trend has turned upward once again.

As a reminder, I firmly believe that precious metals and mining stocks are in the early stages of a long-term secular bull market that began in early 2024, and that the correction since late January was merely a healthy pullback after two strong bullish years. I believe the upward trend will soon resume toward much higher levels, with gold surpassing $15,000 an ounce and silver reaching at least $300.

To reinforce my view that the precious metals bull market remains very much intact despite the 2026 correction, I have several major reports coming up that you won’t want to miss—so stay tuned, and I’ll continue to keep you updated on what I’m seeing.

Disclaimer: the information provided in The Bubble Bubble Report and related content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, financial, or trading advice. Nothing in this publication constitutes a recommendation, solicitation, or offer to buy or sell any securities, commodities, or financial instruments.

All investments carry risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author and publisher disclaim any liability for financial losses or damages incurred as a result of reliance on the information provided.

Checking in with energy prices, crude oil, gasoline, and heating oil/diesel all moved higher over the past week as the U.S.-Iran conflict intensified. Refined products such as gasoline and diesel have been rising faster than crude in recent weeks, a dynamic with strong inflationary implications. If these elevated prices persist and the conflict does not ease, it will become a meaningful headwind for the Republican Party heading into the midterm elections this fall.

While rising energy prices have pushed the probability of 2026 U.S. rate hikes to 54%, those odds have declined from 71% following Tuesday and Wednesday’s weaker-than-expected June CPI and PPI inflation reports. However, July inflation is likely to reaccelerate, given the rebound in energy prices so far this month.

As a reminder, precious metals are sensitive to interest rate expectations because they are non-yielding assets, and they received some support over the past week as rate hike odds declined. The next Fed meeting is on July 29, and while rates are expected to remain unchanged, it is a highly anticipated event, with comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and the updated dot plot likely to serve as important market-moving catalysts.

Now let’s take a look at where precious metals stand, starting with gold, which leads the overall complex. Despite a couple of attempts to move lower during the week, gold rebounded on Friday and continues to hold above the $3,900 to $4,100 support zone, which is an encouraging sign.

As a reminder, the $3,900 to $4,100 support zone was established by the lows in October and November 2025.

Ideally, I would like to see gold continue to hold above the $3,900 to $4,100 support zone and rebound from it, with the next hurdle being the $4,300 to $4,600 resistance zone. A decisive break above that zone would signal that the recent weakness has run its course. This resistance was established over a nine-month period by the highs and lows from October through June.

To learn more about support and resistance zones, I recommend reading my two-part tutorial (Part 1 and Part 2).

In my Wednesday update, I showed how a triangle pattern had formed in gold over the past month and a half. I believe gold is approaching a sharp move as it breaks out of this formation in one direction or the other, though I am not attempting to predict which way it will go, as I prefer a reactive approach and let the market reveal its direction.

My hope is that gold continuing to hold support, combined with oversold conditions, terrible investor sentiment, weakness in the dollar, and the unwinding of the semiconductor and AI stock mania, which I’ll discuss shortly, will set the stage for an upside breakout. Of course, confirmation is key.

I find it encouraging that gold rebounded off the triangle’s support on Friday, and I would like to see that momentum carry into the coming week, leading to an upside breakout, which I believe would mark the end of the recent weakness and the start of the next leg higher in the bull market.

Zooming in on gold’s 1-hour chart, there have been at least six attempts to break below the triangle’s support near $3,980, but each one failed as buyers stepped in to buy the dip. This repeated inability to break lower indicates that gold has had ample opportunity to continue down but hasn’t, which I take as a sign that selling pressure is becoming exhausted, an encouraging development for gold bulls.

Of course, the situation remains fluid, with surging energy prices, the ongoing Iran conflict, and the upcoming Fed meeting all representing important risks. I would feel much more encouraged if gold can break out to the upside from the triangle with strong volume for additional confirmation.

Similar to gold, silver also rebounded on Friday from the $45 to $55 support zone, which was formed by the highs and lows of October and November 2025, which is encouraging.

Assuming silver continues to hold above the $45 to $55 support zone and continues to rebound, likely in line with the direction of gold’s breakout from its triangle, I would then like to see it break above the $60 to $70 resistance zone to confirm that the correction has run its course. This zone was established by the lows from December through June.

Zooming in on silver’s 1-hour chart, it has clearly been holding above the key $55 support level, despite several attempts to break below it. Each time, buyers stepped in to buy the dip, which may be a sign that selling pressure is becoming exhausted.

After rebounding in late June and early July, platinum has run into resistance at the $1,700 to $2,000 zone, which has developed over the past ten months, and has since pulled back modestly.

Still, it is encouraging to see platinum holding above the $1,300 to $1,500 support zone. I would like to see it break through the $1,700 to $2,000 resistance zone just overhead to confirm that the recent weakness has run its course, with gold’s breakout from its triangle likely to be the key factor determining platinum’s next move.

In line with platinum, palladium pulled back slightly toward the end of the week but continues to trade within its $1,100 to $1,400 support zone, which was established by the highs and lows of last summer. A decisive move above this zone would be an encouraging sign that the worst is likely behind it.

Gold miners, as represented by the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX), slipped slightly below the lower boundary of their triangle pattern on Thursday and Friday, but without much conviction, likely reflecting gold’s own lack of a downside breakout. As a result, I would not consider this a confirmed breakdown at this point.

The recent underperformance in gold miners relative to gold is almost certainly due to rising energy prices, as energy is one of the primary input costs in mining. As a result, how energy prices behave from here will be key for mining stock investors.

In addition, GDX continues to hold its $68 to $84 support zone, which is encouraging, and the direction of gold’s breakout from its triangle will be the key driver for gold miners in the near term. I would like to see GDX rebound from this zone to confirm that the recent weakness has run its course.

Silver miners, as represented by the Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL), briefly broke below the triangle pattern but recovered much of those losses on Friday, so I do not consider this a confirmed breakdown at this time.

Like gold miners, silver miners are also being pressured by rising energy costs, so how energy prices trend from here will be an important variable.

SIL continues to hold its $62 to $80 support zone, which is encouraging, and I would like to see it push decisively above this zone to help confirm that the correction has run its course.

Next, let’s look at the U.S. Dollar Index, which is an important influence on precious metals and commodities and typically trades inversely with them.

After attempting to break out of the broadening pattern that developed over the past year, the Dollar Index pulled back earlier in the week following cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation reports and the resulting decline in interest rate expectations.

This indicates that the dollar’s attempted breakout is, for now, appearing to fail, though I would like to see a decisive close below 100 for further confirmation, as that level is both psychologically very important and has served as a key support and resistance level in recent years.

A confirmed breakdown in the dollar would be a highly positive development for the precious metals complex, which typically trades inversely with the dollar. If that occurs, it should serve as a major catalyst to bring the correction that began in January to an end.

Key catalysts for the dollar over the next couple of weeks include energy prices, which tend to support the dollar when rising, the July 29 Fed meeting, and the potential for Japanese intervention to strengthen the yen, which would weigh on the dollar.

If you’d like to track the U.S. Dollar Index yourself, you can do so using this free chart from Finviz.

I have also been tracking the euro for additional insight into the attempted Dollar Index breakout, as it typically trades inversely with the dollar and often moves in positive correlation with precious metals.

Over the past year, the euro traded within a 1.14000 to 1.20000 range. It recently dipped below the 1.14000 support level but has since reclaimed it as the dollar pulled back, and it has strengthened further following the weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation reports. This price action adds to the case that the dollar’s recent breakout attempt has failed and that further downside may lie ahead.

If you’d like to monitor the euro yourself, you can do so using this free chart from Finviz.

Now I want to discuss another important recent development for precious metals, which is the growing bust in the AI and semiconductor stock mania. After spending more time thinking through this, I have come to believe that a major driver of precious metals’ weakness this spring was the surge in AI-related stocks, which pulled significant capital away from metals and into the soaring tech trade.

The chart below compares gold and silver to the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, and it clearly shows that the latest surge in the AI stock mania coincided with the downturn in precious metals.

Of course, correlation does not necessarily imply causation, but I do believe there is a connection here, particularly given that tech stocks and precious metals have often traded inversely, with capital rotating between the two in recurring cycles.

I believe this dynamic particularly impacted Asian investors, who have historically been strong buyers of precious metals but were recently swept up in the AI stock mania, especially in South Korea and Taiwan. As a result, capital temporarily shifted away from metals, though that may now be starting to reverse as the AI trade begins to unwind.

Looking at the semiconductor ETF (SOXX), it appears to have formed a classic bearish head-and-shoulders topping pattern that it broke down from on Thursday and Friday, and assuming this breakdown holds, it points to further downside in AI-related stocks.

This could be an exciting short opportunity for those skilled and experienced enough, though I am not recommending it as it is high risk.

Looking at the longer-term chart of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index shows a clear, classic blow-off mania phase in recent months, and such parabolic moves usually do not end well.

Just consider how much capital that surge pulled away from precious metals, and what will happen once it unwinds, which I see as highly beneficial for precious metals as investors come to their senses.

Adjusting the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index for U.S. M2 money supply, essentially an inflation adjustment, shows that the latest AI and semiconductor stock mania is even more extreme than the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s, and I see this one ending in a similar fashion.

Of course, I recognize that AI is a legitimate technology that is here to stay and will increasingly shape the future, but history shows that technology investments often get far ahead of themselves and need to correct those excesses. We saw the same dynamic with tech stocks in the late 1990s, even though the internet is now larger and more important than ever.

Another related factor that almost certainly contributed to the weakness in precious metals this spring was the enormous amount of capital being funneled into hot new tech IPOs, such as Elon Musk’s highly anticipated SpaceX offering, which raised a total of $85.7 billion and resulted in a staggering initial market capitalization of roughly $1.77 trillion, making Musk the world’s first trillionaire, at least on paper.

But as the tech hype has cooled recently, SpaceX stock has plunged from its peak of $225.64, falling below its $150 IPO price and now sitting at $123.99. That leaves every IPO buyer underwater and has wiped out over $1 trillion in market capitalization, a stark reminder of the risks of chasing hyped-up speculative tech stocks with little to no earnings.

Another heavily anticipated and hyped tech offering was South Korea’s SK Hynix semiconductor stock, which recently debuted for trading in the United States, raising $26.5 billion and becoming more than seven times oversubscribed, driving its U.S.-listed shares to trade at over a 50% premium compared to those in South Korea.

Again, this offering was another shiny object that diverted attention and capital away from precious metals, which were undergoing a routine correction after two very strong years. But now SK Hynix stock is sinking in both South Korea and the United States, punishing investors who bought into the hype.

Further confirmation that the semiconductor stock surge is indeed a mania can be seen in the extent to which South Korean and Taiwanese investors have been leveraging themselves to get in on the action—piling into highly leveraged ETFs, borrowing aggressively, even mortgaging homes—in a rush to participate in the frenzy.

But with AI stocks now plunging, more than 1.2 million leveraged retail accounts across the Korean market have received margin calls in the past week, with approximately 320,000 to 360,000 accounts fully liquidated by brokers—roughly one in every 30 working-age South Korean adults.

This AI stock mania is eerily reminiscent of the Roaring Twenties in the United States, which culminated in the 1929 crash, when investors borrowed heavily on margin to speculate.

There is a very real risk that South Korea and Taiwan will face a similarly painful unwind, and hopefully investors will finally wise up, turn away from this folly, and back toward sound money in gold and silver.

To conclude, precious metals continue to hold their key support levels and have received a lift over the past week from cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation reports, though rising energy prices remain a key risk and will play a major role in determining the trend from here.

I am continuing to monitor the triangle pattern in gold and waiting for a breakout, with my hope being that sellers have become exhausted and that the unwinding of the AI stock mania leads investors to revisit precious metals as they redeploy capital away from the fading tech hype.

As a reminder, I firmly believe that precious metals and mining stocks are in the early stages of a long-term secular bull market that began in early 2024, and that the correction since late January is just that—a healthy pullback after two strong bullish years. I believe the upward trend will soon resume toward much higher levels, with gold surpassing $15,000 an ounce and silver reaching at least $300.

To reinforce my view that the precious metals bull market remains very much intact despite the 2026 correction, I have several major reports coming up that you won’t want to miss—so stay tuned, and I’ll continue to keep you updated on what I’m seeing.

Disclaimer: the information provided in The Bubble Bubble Report and related content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, financial, or trading advice. Nothing in this publication constitutes a recommendation, solicitation, or offer to buy or sell any securities, commodities, or financial instruments.

All investments carry risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author and publisher disclaim any liability for financial losses or damages incurred as a result of reliance on the information provided.

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June, released Tuesday morning, came in at 3.5% annualized, below the 3.8% expected. On a monthly basis, CPI fell 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis, compared to expectations for a 0.2% decline. It is worth noting that these figures were heavily influenced by the sharp drop in energy prices during June, which have since rebounded in July, indicating that inflation is likely to pick up again in the next report.

The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for June, a measure of wholesale costs released Wednesday morning, also came in below expectations at 5.5% annualized. This softer reading was largely driven by the decline in energy prices during June, which have since rebounded in July following the re-escalation of the Iran conflict.

On Wednesday, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh concluded his two-day testimony before Congress, reiterating his tough stance on inflation while offering little in the way of new information beyond his prior remarks. Overall, his appearance was viewed by markets as credible, measured, and professional, with no surprises that unsettled investors.

Energy prices have continued to climb since the re-escalation of the war with Iran last week, with refined products such as gasoline and heating oil/diesel rising even faster than crude oil itself. This reflects ongoing dislocations in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz.

The persistently high and rising prices of refined energy products are of particular concern for inflation, and their full impact should become clearer when the July data is released next month. With refined products trading at unusually wide premiums to crude oil, known as the “crack spread,” refiners are operating at full tilt to capitalize on these elevated margins. As a result, stocks such as Valero Energy have been among the market’s strongest performers in recent weeks.

Despite the renewed rise in energy prices, the weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation reports, CPI and PPI, pushed 2026 Fed rate hike expectations sharply lower, from a Monday peak of 71% to around 51%. This shift drove a notable pullback in the U.S. dollar and a rebound in precious metals, which are highly sensitive to interest rate expectations as non-yielding assets.

Now let’s take a look at where precious metals stand, starting with gold, which leads the overall complex. Gold continues to hold above the $3,900 to $4,100 support zone and has staged several modest rebounds from it in recent weeks, though without sustained upside follow-through so far. Still, as long as gold remains above this support zone, that is an encouraging sign.

As a reminder, the $3,900 to $4,100 support zone was established by the lows in October and November 2025.

Ideally, I would like to see gold continue to hold above the $3,900 to $4,100 support zone and rebound from it, with the next hurdle being the $4,300 to $4,600 resistance zone. A decisive break above that zone would signal that the recent weakness has run its course. This resistance was established over a nine-month period by the highs and lows from October through June.

To learn more about support and resistance zones, I recommend reading my two-part tutorial (Part 1 and Part 2).

I also want to point out that gold’s price action over the past month, combined with declining volatility, has formed a triangle pattern. There is a good chance that the breakout from this formation (in one direction or another) will determine gold’s next major move.

I won’t attempt to predict which direction gold will break out from this formation, as I prefer a reactive rather than predictive approach and let the market dictate the next move. That said, my hope is that continued support holding, oversold conditions, terrible investor sentiment, and the recent sharp pullback in the dollar, which I’ll discuss shortly, could set the stage for an upside breakout. Of course, confirmation is essential.

Silver also continues to hold above the $45 to $55 support zone, which was formed by the highs and lows of October and November 2025, which is encouraging.

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After spiking roughly $8 per barrel on Tuesday and Wednesday, light crude oil pulled back by about $5 per barrel on Thursday and Friday:

The late-week pullback in oil helped ease 2026 Fed rate hike expectations from a midweek peak of 61% to around 54%, providing some support for a rebound in precious metals, which are non-yielding assets and therefore sensitive to changes in interest rate expectations:

Now let’s take a look at where precious metals stand, starting with gold, which leads the overall complex. Gold continues to hold above the $3,900 to $4,100 support zone, including rebounding from it after Wednesday’s pullback, which is an encouraging sign.

As a reminder, the $3,900 to $4,100 support zone was established by the lows in October and November 2025.

Ideally, I would like to see gold continue to hold above the $3,900 to $4,100 support zone and rebound from it, with the next hurdle being the $4,300 to $4,600 resistance zone. A decisive break above that zone would signal that the recent weakness has run its course. This resistance was established over a nine-month period by the highs and lows from October through June.

To learn more about support and resistance zones, I recommend reading my two-part tutorial (Part 1 and Part 2).

Silver also continues to hold above the $45 to $55 support zone, which was formed by the highs and lows of October and November 2025, which is encouraging.

After rebounding from Wednesday’s Iran-related selloff, silver is once again challenging the $60 to $70 resistance zone. I would like to see it break above that zone to confirm that the correction has run its course. This zone was established by the lows from December through June.

Alongside gold and silver, platinum rebounded from Wednesday’s pullback and continues to trade between the $1,300 to $1,500 support zone formed last summer and the $1,700 to $2,000 resistance zone overhead, which has developed over the past ten months.

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After a few weeks of relative calm and optimism around a potential lasting ceasefire, the latest flare-up has shifted the tone dramatically. President Donald Trump signaled he may no longer pursue a deal with Iran and declared the U.S.-Iran ceasefire effectively over. He also revoked temporary waivers that had allowed Iran to sell oil and warned of another wave of strikes on Wednesday night, which have already begun.

Crude oil responded swiftly to the latest flare-up, with light sweet crude rising roughly $6 per barrel and Brent crude gaining about $7, bringing both close to $80. Even so, prices remain surprisingly low given the ongoing risks and the fact that global oil inventories are at dangerously low levels.

The latest spike in oil prices has pushed year-end U.S. rate hike odds higher, rising from 48% to 61% and reversing much of the progress made over the past couple of weeks, when weak U.S. employment data and benign comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh had helped ease concerns about a more hawkish Fed stance.

Since the U.S.-Iran conflict began four months ago, oil and precious metals have largely traded inversely with each other. Higher oil prices lift inflation expectations, which in turn push interest rate expectations higher and weigh on non-yielding precious metals.

In addition, rising interest rate expectations tend to strengthen the U.S. dollar against other currencies, which puts downward pressure on precious metals and other commodities since they are priced globally in dollars.

If your head is spinning from the back-and-forth in the U.S.-Iran conflict, with the Strait of Hormuz seemingly opening and closing by the day and repeated claims that the war is nearly over only for tensions to flare up again, you are not alone. The financial markets have been whipsawed by practically every headline and Trump tweet, creating a high degree of uncertainty and frustration.

The extreme uncertainty of the past couple of years — not just from the U.S.-Iran conflict, but also tariffs, attacks on Fed leadership, and even the attempted takeover of Greenland — is clearly reflected in the U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, which is currently running at roughly three times its average over the past four decades.

In other words, this is genuinely a highly confusing and erratic environment, which helps explain why financial markets, including precious metals, have been gyrating so wildly.

Now let’s take a look at where precious metals stand, starting with gold, which leads the overall complex. After rebounding off the $3,900 to $4,100 support zone late last week, the latest Iran flare-up has erased much of those gains. Even so, gold is still holding that support zone for now, which is an encouraging sign if it continues to do so.

As a reminder, the $3,900 to $4,100 support zone was established by the lows in October and November 2025.

Ideally, I would like to see gold hold above the $3,900 to $4,100 support zone and rebound from it, with the next hurdle being the $4,300 to $4,600 resistance zone. A decisive break above that zone would signal that the recent weakness has run its course. This resistance was established over a nine-month period by the highs and lows from October through June.

To learn more about support and resistance zones, I recommend reading my two-part tutorial (Part 1 and Part 2).

Moving on to silver, it recently ran into resistance at the $60 to $70 zone, which was established by the lows from December through June. It has since pulled back and is now trading just above the $45 to $55 support zone, which was formed by the highs and lows of October and November 2025.

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The recent positive turn in the precious metals complex was also supported earlier by a closely watched speech on Wednesday in which new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed the central bank’s commitment to fighting inflation while noting that inflation risks have eased in recent weeks. Further support came from Wednesday’s weak U.S. private jobs report, which showed a gain of just 98,000 jobs in June versus expectations of 120,000.

The next potentially market-moving event is Wednesday afternoon’s release of the minutes from the Fed’s June 17 FOMC meeting, which will provide investors with additional insight into the decision-making process and discussions from that meeting, when rates were left unchanged. This will be of particular interest to investors seeking a clearer understanding of Kevin Warsh’s unique approach, which remains a major unknown.

Now let’s take a look at where precious metals stand, starting with gold, which leads the overall complex. Toward the end of the week, gold rebounded by roughly $200 an ounce, or about 5%, to close just under $4,200. This rebound came right off the $3,900 to $4,100 support zone I’ve been highlighting, which formed at the lows of October and November 2025.

The next hurdle for gold is the $4,300 to $4,600 resistance zone, which must be broken decisively to confirm that the recent weakness has run its course. This zone was formed over a nine-month period by the highs and lows from October through June.

To learn more about support and resistance zones, I recommend reading my two-part tutorial (Part 1 and Part 2).

Lending further support to gold’s recent rebound is news from the World Gold Council that, while notoriously fickle retail investors have temporarily soured on gold in recent months, central banks have continued to buy aggressively, stepping up purchases to a net 41 metric tonnes in May.

Central banks have been on a sustained buying spree over the past half decade as they diversify away from fiat currencies, which continue to be debased through the relentless expansion of the money supply.

Moving on to silver, it rose approximately $8 an ounce, or about 15%, last week to just under $63, rebounding off the $45 to $55 support zone that formed at the highs and lows of October and November 2025.

Silver is now back within its $60 to $70 resistance zone, which formed at the lows from December through June, an encouraging development. The next step is a decisive breakout above this zone to confirm that the correction has run its course and that silver is positioned to resume its bull market toward new all-time highs.

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In addition, in a closely watched speech, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed the central bank’s commitment to fighting inflation but noted that inflation risks have eased in recent weeks. That helped lift precious metals early in the session, though they gave back some of those gains as the day progressed, which is not surprising given the holiday-shortened week in the U.S. and the resulting thin trading conditions.

The next major potential catalyst for the markets, including precious metals, is Thursday morning’s U.S. June jobs report, which is expected to show the economy added around 115,000 jobs. That said, the Fed is currently less focused on employment and far more concerned with inflation when making policy decisions, making the next Consumer Price Index report on July 14 particularly important to watch.

Now let’s take a look at where precious metals stand, starting with gold, which leads the overall complex. After breaking below the $4,300 to $4,600 support zone in early June, gold is now trading within the $3,900 to $4,100 support zone formed by the lows of October and November 2025.

Ideally, I would like to see gold hold the $3,900 to $4,100 support zone and rebound from it, with the $4,300 to $4,600 zone now serving as key resistance that must be broken decisively to confirm the recent weakness has run its course. I will be watching closely how gold reacts to Thursday’s U.S. jobs report, which has strong potential to act as a catalyst for the next move.

To learn more about support and resistance zones, I recommend reading my two-part tutorial (Part 1 and Part 2).

Early last week, silver broke below the $60 to $70 support zone that had formed over the past seven months, putting the $45 to $55 support zone, established by the highs and lows in October and November 2025, into play.

Since then, silver has held above the $45 to $55 support zone and rebounded modestly. The $60 to $70 zone now stands as key resistance overhead and must be cleared decisively to confirm that the recent weakness is behind us. As with gold, I am watching to see whether Thursday’s jobs report acts as a catalyst for the next move.

Early last week, platinum broke below its $1,700 to $2,000 support zone, bringing the $1,300 to $1,500 support zone into play, which was formed at last summer’s highs and lows.

Since then, platinum has been trading between the $1,300 to $1,500 support zone and the $1,700 to $2,000 zone, which now stands as critical resistance overhead that must be cleared to negate the recent breakdown.

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Also helping the precious metals complex were falling oil prices, which gave Treasuries a lift and pushed yields lower, leading to a modest pullback in the U.S. Dollar Index. That said, tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalated after markets closed, with both sides trading strikes, highlighting how fragile the current peace arrangement is. As a result, it remains to be seen how markets—particularly energy—will react when they reopen on Sunday evening.

As usual, we’ll start with gold, which leads the overall precious metals complex. After breaking below the $4,300 to $4,600 support zone earlier this month, gold began to rebound by the end of the week from the $3,900 to $4,100 support zone, an encouraging development that I would like to see continue with further upside momentum.

The $4,300 to $4,600 zone now stands as key resistance overhead and must be broken decisively to confirm that the recent weakness has run its course.

To learn more about support and resistance zones, I recommend reading my two-part tutorial (Part 1 and Part 2).

Earlier in the week, silver broke below the $60 to $70 support zone that had formed over the past seven months, putting the $45 to $55 support zone, established by the highs and lows in October and November 2025, into play.

By the end of the week, silver began to bounce from that support zone, which is an encouraging sign, but more work is needed to fully negate the recent breakdown. The $60 to $70 zone now stands as key resistance overhead and must be cleared decisively to confirm that the recent weakness is behind us.

Earlier in the week, platinum broke below its $1,700 to $2,000 support zone, bringing the $1,300 to $1,500 support zone into play, which was formed at last summer’s highs and lows.

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Let’s start with gold, which leads the overall precious metals complex. After breaking below the $4,300 to $4,600 support zone earlier this month and failing to reclaim it following last week’s Fed meeting, gold has now moved into the $3,900 to $4,100 support zone that formed at the lows in October and November 2025.

Ideally, I would like to see the $3,900 to $4,100 support zone hold, but if it doesn’t, the next zone at $3,400 to $3,600, which formed at last summer’s highs, would come into play. For now, though, let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

To learn more about support and resistance zones, I recommend reading my two-part tutorial (Part 1 and Part 2).

On Wednesday, silver broke below the $60 to $70 support zone that had formed over the past seven months, underscoring the need for added caution in the short term for those trading.

The next support zone now comes into play at $45 to $55, which was established by the highs and lows in October and November 2025, and ideally I would like to see silver find firmer footing here and stage a recovery from this zone.

Over the past couple of days, platinum broke below its $1,700 to $2,000 support zone, bringing the $1,300 to $1,500 support zone into play, which was formed at last summer’s highs and lows.

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As I took a deeper look at this setup over the weekend and had more time to think it through, however, I realized that a dollar rally is not necessarily a done deal just yet. There are several reasons for this that I want to highlight in today’s update, and additional confirmation will be needed before having confidence in calling for a sustained move higher in the dollar.

Let’s start with the chart of the U.S. Dollar Index over the past year. The index measures the dollar’s exchange rate against major currencies such as the euro, pound, and yen, though it is important to note that it does not reflect the dollar’s purchasing power.

The U.S. Dollar Index had been trading within a 96 to 100 range over the past year but finally closed above the key 100 resistance level on Thursday. The move followed Wednesday’s Fed meeting, where new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh struck a more hawkish tone than expected, increasing the odds of interest rate hikes and driving the dollar higher.

Although the Dollar Index breakout above 100 is concerning at first glance, as Peter Brandt, a highly experienced commodities trader, pointed out, it’s important to consider that this move could prove to be a bull trap. There are several reasons for this, including the fact that so many market participants are focused on that scenario, and what appears obvious often isn’t the case.

Although I will outline additional ways to confirm whether the Dollar Index breakout is genuine, one of the clearest signals of a potential bull trap would be if the index stalls, reverses, and falls back below the key 100 level.

Another scenario worth considering, as an X user, Colin Talks Crypto, pointed out to Peter Brandt, is that rather than trading within a neat range defined by parallel support and resistance, the Dollar Index may actually have been forming a megaphone/broadening pattern over the past year. If that interpretation is correct, then a true breakout from that pattern has not yet occurred.

In the chart below, I redrew the support and resistance lines on the U.S. Dollar Index, and it does support the case that a broadening pattern has been forming and that a breakout has not yet occurred. This leaves open the possibility that the index could run into resistance just overhead and pull back once again, which would be the ideal outcome for those bullish on precious metals and commodities.

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