A Deep Dive into the Long-Term Bullish Case for Gold

This is the first installment in a powerful, must-read series where I lay out why I’m extremely bullish on gold and silver mining stocks.

I'm excited to publish this report today—it marks the beginning of a comprehensive multi-part series on the bullish case for gold and silver mining stocks. To be honest, I’m also a bit daunted. This is an incredibly broad and deep topic—one that could easily justify its own book. But my goal is to break it down into a clear, digestible series of sub-reports. I’ll start with the most logical foundation: the comprehensive long-term bullish case for gold. The rest of my mining stock thesis will build upon that base. I hope you enjoy this series and find it as insightful and valuable as I intend it to be. Let’s dive in!

Introduction

After more than a decade of stagnation from 2012 to early 2024, gold finally sprang back to life last spring—decisively breaking above the key $2,000 per ounce psychological level and signaling the start of a powerful new bull market. I strongly suspected that something big was brewing in gold that very day—just hours before the surge began.

Sure enough, gold’s breakout in early 2024 also completed a massive 12-year cup-and-handle pattern—a textbook bullish setup. This formation not only foreshadowed gold’s $1,300-per-ounce surge over the past year, but it also signals that the bull market likely has much further to run—even from current levels with gold already above $3,300 an ounce. If history is any guide, major gold breakouts like this don’t fade quickly—they tend to kick off bull markets that last a decade or more.

The Monetary and Fiscal Case for Gold

There are numerous factors that influence the price of gold, but the most important one—the core reason to remain long-term bullish—is that the world’s major currencies, from the U.S. dollar to the euro to the Japanese yen, are backed by nothing. They’re essentially just paper, easily created in unlimited quantities by governments and central banks to serve their own agendas.

And serving their own agendas is what they do best—whether it’s funding deficits, the welfare state, bailouts, or pet projects—and in the end, it’s everyday workers and savers who bear the cost, as their hard-earned savings steadily lose purchasing power year after year. Unfortunately, this won’t stop—not as long as paper currencies and central banks define our monetary system. That’s why it’s imperative to always own gold—it’s the ultimate defense against currency debasement.

As the chart below illustrates, from 1920 to 2025, the U.S. M1 money supply—which includes the most liquid forms of money such as currency in circulation, demand deposits, and other checkable deposits—has skyrocketed by an astonishing 86,000%, rising from just $21.5 billion to a staggering $18.5 trillion.

While the U.S. dollar was once backed by gold, that backing was steadily diluted over the decades until it was fully abandoned on August 15, 1971. (I’ve written a full article detailing how that happened—be sure to check it out.) This relentless erosion of the dollar’s integrity, combined with unchecked money creation, steadily undermined its value over time—a process we know as inflation.

Make no mistake: inflation isn’t fundamentally caused by wars, supply shocks, strikes, droughts, or energy crises. At its core, inflation stems from the debasement of currency itself. As Nobel Prize–winning economist Milton Friedman famously put it, "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon."

And while I’ve shown the chart of the U.S. dollar’s debasement here, make no mistake—it’s the exact same story for every other country that uses fiat money, which includes virtually every major nation on Earth. The names change, but the game remains the same.

So after examining the chart of the U.S. money supply over the past century, let’s now take a look at how much the cost of living has soared during that same period by reviewing the long-term Consumer Price Index (CPI).

As you’ll see, the U.S. didn’t experience persistent, steady inflation until after the Federal Reserve was established in 1913. From that point forward, the Fed gradually took steps that undermined the integrity of the dollar—causing its purchasing power to erode and the cost of living to rise. This long-term surge in the cost of living is a direct byproduct of the explosive growth in the money supply that we explored earlier.

By using the same Consumer Price Index shown in the chart above, we can measure how drastically the U.S. dollar’s purchasing power has declined over time. Unfortunately, the data reveals that the dollar has lost nearly 97% of its value since the Federal Reserve was established in 1913 and began its steady dismantling of the dollar’s integrity. That’s a staggering figure: something that cost $100 in 1913 would cost $3,115 in 2024 purely due to inflation—in other words, the erosion of the dollar’s buying power.

Another powerful way to visualize—and further confirm—the dollar’s dramatic loss of purchasing power over the past century is by charting how many ounces of gold $1,000 can buy. Around 100 years ago, $1,000 would buy 51.95 ounces of gold. But as the dollar was gradually debased, it bought less and less—until today, when $1,000 purchases just 0.31 ounces of gold. That represents a staggering 99.4% loss in the dollar’s purchasing power relative to gold over the past century. This aligns closely with the CPI-based chart shown earlier, reinforcing the same harsh reality from a different angle.

That chart also reinforces a crucial point: gold’s purchasing power remains remarkably stable over time, even as fiat currencies steadily lose theirs. A classic example is the old saying, “An ounce of gold can buy a good men’s suit.” A century ago, when gold was $35 an ounce, that was enough to buy a high-quality suit. Today, with gold at $3,300 an ounce, it still buys a well-made, upscale suit. That alone is a powerful reason to store wealth in gold—a timeless asset that has helped people preserve their purchasing power for over 6,000 years. And make no mistake: this inflationary march will never end as long as fiat currencies exist.

Many people fondly recall the halcyon days of post–World War II America, when a working-class man with an ordinary job could comfortably support a stay-at-home wife, raise several children, own a home and a car, and still save for college.

Sadly, that version of the American Dream was destroyed—not by Democrats or Republicans, and not by free trade—but by the U.S. Federal Reserve and its debasement of the currency. As a result, the income now needed to sustain that lifestyle has ballooned to several hundred thousand dollars a year, while the median income for U.S. men in 2023 was just $66,790.

It’s telling, however, that if someone had chosen to be paid the same amount of gold each year in the 1950s and again today, their purchasing power and standard of living would remain virtually unchanged. That’s because, unlike fiat money, gold retains its value over time—just as we saw with the example of men’s suits in the previous section.

The Fed and fiat money is why we can’t have nice things…

So far, I’ve explained how paper—or fiat—money is unsound because it can be created in unlimited quantities, inevitably leading to inflation. In contrast, gold retains its purchasing power and serves as a reliable hedge against the debasement of all fiat currencies. Now, I’m going to illustrate that relationship with a chart.

As you’ll see below, as the money supply expands over time and the value of each unit declines, gold rises to compensate for that loss in purchasing power. And here’s the key takeaway: to be long-term bullish on gold, you simply need to understand that the global money supply is never going to stop expanding—in fact, as I’ll show shortly, it’s only going to accelerate from here.

Another major catalyst that’s extremely bullish for gold is the runaway explosion of U.S. debt—including, but not limited to, the national debt. Since the year 2000, the U.S. national debt has skyrocketed more than sixfold, from $5.77 trillion to a staggering $36.7 trillion. Even more alarming, it’s now growing by $1 trillion every 100 days.

Why is this so bullish for gold? Because as the debt spirals higher, the likelihood of a sovereign debt crisis increases. In such a crisis, U.S. Treasury bonds would plummet, yields would spike, and the federal government and Federal Reserve—would be forced to intervene by “printing” massive amounts of money to buy collapsing Treasuries and prop up both the bond market and the broader economy.

But that’s exactly when inflation will spiral out of control—far beyond the levels of the 1970s. We’re talking 30% inflation per year, then 60%, then 100%—and eventually full-blown hyperinflation that burns the dollar up. That kind of scenario would send gold and silver soaring. And it’s one of the core reasons why these metals tend to follow the national debt higher over time.

Another helpful way to grasp the weight of a nation’s debt is to compare it to its gross domestic product (GDP), which reveals how burdensome that debt is. By that measure, the U.S. national debt now stands at around 120% of GDP—near its highest level in history, excluding a brief spike during World War II.

That’s a deeply troubling figure, because it shows just how little fiscal room the federal government has left to respond to another economic or national crisis with stimulus measures. For comparison, before the Great Recession of 2007–2009, the debt-to-GDP ratio was only 62%—roughly half of what it is today.

That stark difference is why the next recession—which I’ll address shortly—poses a much greater threat than previous downturns. With debt levels this high, a typical recession could easily spiral into a full-blown depression.

What’s even more alarming is how the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects the federal debt to explode in the coming decades—with no end in sight. According to their forecast, federal debt held by the public will surge from around 100% of GDP today to an astounding 156% by 2055. That single fact says almost everything you need to know about the long-term bullish case for gold—and why, even at $3,300, it’s still dirt cheap.

*(Note: If you noticed a discrepancy between this data and the earlier chart, it’s because the first chart reflects total U.S. national debt, while this one focuses only on debt held by the public. The key takeaway isn’t the specific metric—it’s the unmistakable trajectory: debt is heading relentlessly higher.)

After a wave of concern in the 1980s, many people — including Republicans — gradually stopped talking much about the U.S. national debt, which is ironic given how much larger it is today. One key reason for this complacency is that interest rates on government debt remained at historic lows for years — with 10-year Treasury yields falling below 4% after 2008. These ultra-low rates made it much easier for the federal government to carry an enormous debt load, since annual interest payments stayed relatively manageable, hovering under $500 billion throughout the 2000s and 2010s.

But a major shift occurred after the 2020 pandemic, when annual interest payments on the federal debt more than doubled to $1.1 trillion. This surge was driven by two factors: a $13 trillion or 56% increase in the national debt over the past five years, and a spike in 10-year Treasury yields from around 2.2% before the pandemic to roughly 4.2% today.

Amazingly, gross interest on the U.S. debt now exceeds federal spending on defense, income security, healthcare, veterans’ benefits, and even Medicare—making it the second-largest government expense, behind only Social Security, which costs around $1.5 trillion per year.

Unfortunately, we’re rapidly approaching an endgame: as the national debt keeps climbing and investors grow more reluctant to hold Treasuries, yields are going to rise even further. This will make interest payments increasingly unaffordable for the government, ultimately forcing it to resort to money printing to stay afloat. The result? Surging inflation and an explosion in gold and silver prices. All gold and silver investors — and really, everyone — should be closely watching the rising interest costs on the federal debt.

While I’ve been showing U.S.-centric charts and data, make no mistake: the rest of the world is facing the same crisis of surging inflation and runaway debt — all a byproduct of fiat money. Just look at the chart below showing global debt skyrocketing from around $25 trillion in the mid-1990s to $224 trillion in 2024.

We’re fast approaching the breaking point of this global debt bubble — and when it bursts, the fallout will be worldwide. That’s a powerful reason why everyone, no matter where they live, should be storing their savings in gold instead of fragile fiat currencies.

One of the key points I’ve emphasized throughout this report is that the heavily indebted U.S. government is now in a poor position to stimulate the economy during the next recession, as it has in the past, due to its record-high debt burden. This severely limits the scale of future fiscal stimulus—and raises the risk that even a routine recession could spiral into a full-blown depression.

What’s especially alarming, given that reality, is how U.S. recession risk has more than doubled in just the past couple of months—across a wide range of indicators, including prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi. I’ve averaged their probabilities and plotted them in the chart below. It’s important to note: this surge in recession risk is something I’ve been warning about since the deceptively calm days of December—well before the current tariff shock rattled the markets.

Since the 2008 Great Recession, the Federal Reserve has relied heavily on a tool it had virtually never used before: quantitative easing (QE)—essentially digital money printing aimed at propping up the economy and financial markets. Unfortunately, like a person hooked on narcotics, the U.S. economy and financial markets have become dangerously dependent on this artificial stimulus. And when the QE stops, it’s only a matter of time before the economy stalls and asset prices—like stocks and housing—begin to sink.

After massive QE binges—like the $5 trillion injection during the pandemic—the Fed typically attempts to rein in inflation and shrink its balance sheet through a period of quantitative tightening (QT). But in an economy hooked on stimulus, QT quickly leads to economic weakness and recession. This, in turn, forces the Fed to abandon QT and resume QE all over again—pushing its balance sheet and the U.S. money supply to even greater heights with each cycle.

For the past three years, we’ve been in a quantitative tightening (QT) cycle that has steadily slowed the economy—and now, as I showed earlier, recession risk is surging. That means it’s only a matter of time before QE returns, and when it does, gold and silver will go ballistic. What’s especially important to note is that precious metals have already performed remarkably well over the past year—even during QT, which is typically a headwind for them. Just imagine what happens when the Fed flips back to QE!

Ultimately, all of the world’s major fiat currencies—including the U.S. dollar, British pound, euro, Swiss franc, Australian dollar, Chinese yuan, and Japanese yen—are headed for the same fate: collapse. This has been the inevitable end of every fiat currency throughout history. While fiat systems may function well enough in their early stages, over time governments consistently spend more than they take in, debt piles up, and economies become dangerously addicted to money printing to cover the gap. Eventually, the value of these paper currencies is destroyed—and unfortunately, we’re on track to experience that reality in the not-so-distant future.

The chart below illustrates how, during Weimar Germany’s infamous hyperinflation of the early 1920s, physical gold—such as a single gold Mark coin—not only preserved its value but skyrocketed when priced in the rapidly devaluing paper Marks of the time. This happened because the Reichsbank, Germany’s central bank, was running the printing presses at full throttle to prop up a collapsing economy and cover massive government deficits.

That chart is a historical preview of what will unfold in the years ahead, when gold hits $4,000… $5,000… $7,000… $15,000… even $20,000 per ounce—and, ultimately, some mind-boggling figure like $20 quadrillion, when the dollar and other major fiat currencies are on the brink of worthlessness.

Source: Wikimedia Commons

As the U.S. dollar and other major fiat currencies inevitably collapse—just as every fiat currency has throughout history—hyperinflation will follow, wiping out wealth and reducing even the affluent to poverty—unless they hold assets like gold and silver. At that point, public pressure will mount for real solutions to stop the inflation and restore confidence in the currency. One of the most historically reliable ways to achieve that is by backing the dollar with gold once again—placing real limits on how much it can be debased.

It is indeed possible to back the U.S. dollar with gold—specifically, the 8,133 metric tons (or roughly $863 billion worth) held in U.S. reserves. The key question is: what percentage of the money supply should be backed, and at what gold price? To provide a simple, back-of-the-envelope illustration, I created the chart below showing what the price of gold would need to be to fully or partially back the U.S. M1 money supply with gold.

The result: gold would need to be revalued to $70,861 per ounce for 100% backing, and $7,086 per ounce for 10% backing. While this is a rough estimate, it gives us a useful sense of the kind of gold prices that may emerge in a post-fiat monetary system.

Ticking Time Bombs: The Asset Bubbles Poised to Burst

So far, I’ve covered the major threats posed by a surging money supply, rising cost of living, and ballooning debt—but that’s only part of the story. We’re also sitting on gigantic asset bubbles in the U.S. stock market, housing market, and overall household wealth. These bubbles are nearing their breaking point, and when they burst, they’ll unleash a chain reaction that will be devastating for the economy—but powerfully bullish for gold and silver, as I’ll explain next.

The first major asset bubble I want to address is the U.S. stock market. Since the 2009 lows, the S&P 500 has surged roughly 683%, the Dow about 500%, and the Nasdaq-100 an astonishing 1,445%. Unfortunately, these gains were driven less by genuine economic growth and more by artificially low interest rates and nearly $8 trillion in monetary stimulus (i.e., digital money-printing) from the Federal Reserve. As a result, stock prices have become wildly disconnected from underlying fundamentals like sales, revenues, corporate assets, and the real economy.

There are many valuation metrics pointing to the U.S. stock market being deep in bubble territory—even after the correction of the past couple months. While I don’t have space to show them all, one of the most telling is the total U.S. stock market capitalization-to-GDP ratio—commonly known as the "Buffett Indicator." Warren Buffett has famously called it “the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment,” as it compares the market’s total value to the size of the real economy.

The Buffett Indicator is currently sitting at an elevated 187%—more than double its long-term average of 85% since 1971, and well above its peaks during both the dot-com bubble (~140%) and the housing bubble (~105%). This extreme level signals that stock valuations have become dangerously inflated during the recent bull market. History shows that such excesses don’t unwind gently—a sharp mean reversion is inevitable. In plain terms, it strongly implies that another major bear market is coming, much like the one that followed the bursting of the dot-com bubble in the early 2000s.

If you're still not convinced that stocks are in a massive bubble, consider the Nasdaq 100 adjusted for the U.S. M2 money supply. This metric shows that tech stocks have outpaced the growth of the money supply, a pattern eerily similar to what occurred during the dot-com bubble. When asset prices rise faster than liquidity expansion, it signals unsustainable speculation, further reinforcing the risks of a looming bear market. To learn more about the latest U.S. stock market bubble, read my recent report.

Stocks aren’t the only major asset bubble the U.S. is facing—we’re also in the midst of another major housing bubble. Unfortunately, it’s clear we haven’t learned the lessons of the 2008 Great Recession. Many of today’s investors and professionals were just children at the time and barely remember it—which is one reason why this mistake was repeated.

During the course of this bubble, housing has become so inflated that Americans now need an annual income of $166,600 to afford the median-priced home at $433,100—yet the actual median household income is just $78,538. This level of imbalance is unsustainable, and history has shown us exactly how it ends: a housing market crash and an economic crisis. Read my recent report on how Housing Bubble 2.0 is set to play a major role in causing the next economic crisis.

The twin bubbles in stocks and housing have created what I call a “wealth bubble.” One of the clearest ways to measure this distortion is by comparing total U.S. household wealth to GDP, which shows whether wealth levels are in line with the underlying economy or wildly out of sync, as they were during previous bubbles like the late-1990s dot-com boom and the mid-2000s housing bubble.

What’s truly alarming is that America’s current wealth bubble has reached 570% of GDP—far exceeding the 450% peak of the dot-com era and the 486% peak during the housing bubble. This means that a violent reckoning is ahead: when stock and housing prices fall, household wealth will plunge with them—delivering a tremendous blow to the broader economy.

While the bursting of America’s twin bubbles in stocks and housing will be painful for mainstream investors, those positioned in gold, silver, and mining stocks stand to benefit tremendously. That’s because trillions of dollars in wealth will flow out of those overinflated assets and into hard assets—fueling a powerful surge in gold, silver, and related equities. This shift, known as capital rotation, will drive precious metals to astronomical levels.

Capital rotations between equities and gold have played out in recurring cycles throughout history, marked by major trendline breaks—as shown in the Dow-to-gold ratio chart below. A break below an uptrend line signals that gold is set to outperform stocks, while a break above a downtrend line suggests the reverse. Historically, every major secular bull market in both gold and equities over the past century has been preceded by such decisive trendline breaks.

What’s particularly significant is that in spring 2024, the Dow-to-gold ratio broke below its uptrend line. This means that a capital rotation from stocks to gold is already underway—and as the current stock market bubble fully unwinds, this rotation will only accelerate. Read my recent report to explore the current rotation of capital from equities into gold and its implications.

I also want to address a common objection I’ve been hearing lately regarding precious metals: many skeptics point to 2008, when gold, silver, and mining stocks sold off sharply alongside the broader market. While that did happen, it’s important to understand that a repeat of that scenario is not inevitable—and in my view, unlikely. Today’s economic backdrop is fundamentally different, and there are several compelling reasons why the current environment is far more favorable for precious metals than it was in 2008.

One of the reasons precious metals were hit hard in 2008 is that they were already deep into a seven-year bull market. Gold, silver, and mining stocks had posted massive gains, valuations were elevated, and the trade had become crowded—making them vulnerable to a sharp correction when the financial crisis hit. That’s a stark contrast to today: we’re only about one year into a new gold bull market, and silver and mining stocks have barely begun to move. This bull market is still in its early stages and far from overheated.

Another key difference is the U.S. dollar. In 2008, the dollar was undervalued and ripe for a sharp rally—which is exactly what happened, putting additional pressure on gold and silver. Today, the opposite is true: the dollar is quite overvalued and vulnerable to a major pullback. As I’ll show shortly, that sets the stage for a powerful tailwind for precious metals rather than a headwind.

Instead of using 2008 as a model for what’s next for precious metals—which I believe is a poor comparison—we should look to the 2000–2002 tech stock bear market as a far more relevant parallel. There are several compelling reasons for this: gold, silver, and mining stocks were deeply undervalued and underowned back then—just like they are today; the market was coming off a massive tech bubble, much like the one we’ve just experienced; and the U.S. dollar was significantly overvalued at the time, as it is now. All of these factors contributed to a powerful precious metals bull market from 2001 until 2008—and I believe they’re setting the stage for a similar outcome now.

As the chart below illustrates, the bursting of the tech stock bubble—represented by the Nasdaq 100 in the early 2000s—directly and immediately benefited gold, silver, and mining stocks. Large amounts of capital fled the collapsing tech sector and flowed into natural resources—a dramatic rotation from the “New Economy” back to the old. I believe this historical chart serves as a strong analog for how today’s asset bubbles are likely to unwind—and how that shift will once again drive a major bull market in precious metals.

Why a Falling Dollar Will Set Off the Next Commodities Supercycle

On top of all the other reasons I’m extremely bullish on gold for the long run, one of the most compelling is the U.S. dollar’s current overvaluation relative to other major currencies. According to over 120 years of historical data, such overvaluation has only occurred twice before—in 1933 and 1985—both of which were followed by sharp and sustained declines in the dollar.

The dollar’s unusual strength in recent years has been a key force suppressing commodity prices, thanks to the well-known inverse relationship between the two. However, I believe a major correction in the dollar is on the horizon—one that will unleash a powerful bullish wave across the entire commodities sector. Assets like food commodities, energy, gold, silver, and mining stocks will soar, much like they did during the last dollar bear market in the early 2000s.

A look at the long-term U.S. Dollar Index chart reveals that it has been trading within a rising channel since around 2008. I believe an eventual breakdown from this channel would be a key signal that the dollar is entering a new bear market—much like the one that occurred in the early 2000s.

I believe the looming dollar bear market will ignite a powerful commodities supercycle. Supporting this outlook is the historically low valuation of commodities relative to U.S. stocks, as shown in the chart below. When this ratio reaches extreme levels—like it has in recent years—it typically snaps back with force, unleashing major moves across the entire commodities complex.

A Look at Gold Demand

What’s unique about the current gold bull market is how fundamentally different it is from past cycles. Unlike previous bull runs, this one has seen very limited participation from Western investors. Instead, it’s being driven primarily by central banks in emerging economies—including China, India, Turkey, and Poland—as they seek to diversify their reserves away from fiat currencies and sovereign bonds, both of which have become increasingly vulnerable in a world burdened by record levels of debt.

As the chart below shows, central banks around the world have been purchasing over 1,000 metric tons of gold annually for the past three years—a substantial and sustained level of demand. This trend is likely to continue—and may even accelerate—as global debt burdens mount and fiat currencies grow increasingly vulnerable. This steady, large-scale buying is a powerful force that will continue to drive gold to much higher levels in the years to come.

Another powerful force driving the gold market is the cultural affinity for gold among everyday investors in China and India, where storing wealth in physical gold is deeply ingrained. In China, this traditional demand is now being amplified by the modernization of its financial markets, with more investors gaining exposure to gold through futures and exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

As the chart below shows, assets under management in Chinese gold ETFs have more than tripled in the past year—from around 40 tonnes to 150 tonnes. For a deeper dive, read my latest report on how Chinese investors and traders are playing a major role in fueling gold’s bull market over the past year.

As I explained earlier, the current gold bull market is unusual in that it has been driven primarily by Eastern demand—both from central banks and investors—while Western investors remained largely on the sidelines until recently. There are several reasons for this. First, the spotlight was stolen by a massive bubble in speculative tech stocks and cryptocurrencies, which diverted attention away from gold. Second, real interest rates have been relatively high over the past three years, a condition that typically dampens enthusiasm for precious metals.

The chart below from Topdown Charts highlights just how underrepresented gold-related assets are in American investment portfolios today compared to the past. Remarkably, gold allocations barely moved during the 2024 bull market and have only started to rise in recent months. Now, imagine the impact on gold prices if investor allocations return to around 6%, as they were in the early 2010s—nearly triple current levels.

This chart reinforces a key point: gold’s bull market is still in its early stages, with significant upside potential as Western investors begin to re-engage. It also confirms that gold is far from a crowded trade—exactly the kind of setup precious metals bulls want to see.

Another clear sign that Western investors had largely ignored the gold bull market—until recently—is seen in the physical gold holdings of the popular SPDR® Gold Shares (GLD) ETF. Since early 2024, GLD’s holdings have risen about 15% from their lows, but there’s still a long way to go to recover from the massive liquidation that occurred between late 2020 and early 2024.

This reinforces the point that gold is far from a crowded trade, and the door remains wide open for substantial capital inflows—especially as the stock market bubble unravels. That development will propel gold to truly astounding heights.

Paper Gold vs. Physical Gold

As I near the end of this report, it’s important to highlight a critical distinction: not all gold is created equal. Investors must understand the difference between physical gold and so-called “paper” gold—which includes futures, options, forwards, ETFs, contracts for difference (CFDs), and other products. Much of this paper gold is not backed by actual physical metal and amounts to little more than an IOU with no guarantee of delivery when it really counts. In times of crisis, that distinction could prove to be absolutely vital.

In reality, the amount of paper gold in existence exceeds actual physical gold by a staggering ratio of 131 to 1. That means your 1 oz coin or gold bar is far rarer than most people realize. I believe we’re approaching a moment when investors wake up to this imbalance—triggering a mass run on physical gold and a scramble out of paper gold once it becomes clear how little of it is truly backed by the real thing. In such a scenario, I expect physical gold to skyrocket in value, while paper gold will collapse as confidence evaporates.

Another way of understanding how truly valuable and rare physical gold is is by visualizing it through the framework of Exter’s Pyramid which was developed by economist John Exter to illustrate the hierarchy of asset classes based on risk and liquidity during times of financial crisis. The pyramid is inverted, with the most liquid and safest asset (gold) at the bottom, and the least liquid and riskiest assets (like derivatives) at the top.

I believe the coming global monetary and financial reckoning will trigger a powerful destruction of value across a wide range of overinflated assets—fiat currencies, bonds, stocks, overpriced real estate, speculative tech startups, and derivatives (of which there are an estimated $1 quadrillion outstanding).

As these assets collapse, trillions of dollars in capital will seek safety—and much of it will flow into gold and silver. This historic shift will send gold soaring to anywhere from $15,000 to $75,000 per ounce in real, inflation-adjusted terms, and in nominal terms, we will see truly astronomical prices—even something as wild as $75 trillion per ounce once fiat currencies spiral into hyperinflation.

A modern adaptation of Exter's Pyramid. Source: Wikipedia.

Conclusion

As I wrap up this report, I want to emphasize that I’ve done my best to present the core of my long-term bullish case for gold in a concise and accessible format. Of course, this thesis could easily fill an entire book—there’s much more to explore, including international economic and financial risks. But rest assured, what you’ve read here represents the foundation of the gold bull case. Everything else is simply icing on the cake.

To summarize my long-term bullish case for gold in a nutshell: I will remain bullish on gold as long as central banks continue to dominate the global economy and we operate on unbacked fiat currencies that are endlessly debased until they collapse. One of the most powerful drivers is the soaring debt—both in the U.S. and globally—which will ultimately force central banks to print even more money just to cover interest payments and prop up their sovereign bonds.

Add to that the enormous asset bubbles in U.S. stocks, housing, and overall wealth—bubbles that are unsustainable and must eventually deflate. When they do, the fallout will devastate the broader economy, but it will trigger an epic capital rotation into gold, silver, and mining stocks. And just like in past downturns, the Fed and other central banks will certainly reignite quantitative easing, providing yet another powerful tailwind for precious metals.

I hope you found this in-depth report on the long-term bullish case for gold both insightful and valuable. It’s the first installment in a new series I’m writing to explain why I’m extremely bullish on gold and silver mining stocks. Up next: a deep dive into the mining sector itself—so stay tuned for that in the coming days.

If you enjoyed this post and would like to see more content like it, please consider subscribing via the form below:

---

Disclaimer: the information provided in The Bubble Bubble Report and related content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, financial, or trading advice. Nothing in this publication constitutes a recommendation, solicitation, or offer to buy or sell any securities, commodities, or financial instruments.

All investments carry risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author and publisher disclaim any liability for financial losses or damages incurred as a result of reliance on the information provided.