Copper Is Breaking Out — Is Silver About to Follow?

Copper broke out to a new all-time high today, signaling the start of a powerful bull market—one that’s likely to unfold as part of a broader, long-term commodities supercycle.

I’ve been bullish on copper for several months, sharing my outlook in articles published in December, February, and a more recent update that laid out my full thesis. My view was that copper would emerge from its late 2024 slump and begin a long-term bull market. At the time of my initial call, copper was struggling to hold the $4.00 per pound level. Today, it has surged to a new all-time high of $5.21 — a breakout that signals the start of a powerful new bull cycle. Given copper’s strong historical correlation with silver, and the role of arbitrage algorithms that reinforce this relationship, I believe silver is poised to follow copper’s lead higher.

Copper’s weekly chart reveals a major resistance zone between $5.00 and $5.20 — a level that has held firm for the past three years. Today, copper began to push above this critical zone, which is a strong bullish signal. However, for full confirmation of the breakout, I’d like to see a decisive weekly close at or above this level.

The monthly copper chart reveals an ascending triangle pattern that has taken shape over the past few years. Copper is now beginning to break out of this formation, which is a highly bullish development. That said, I’d prefer to see the monthly candle close at or above this level to confirm the breakout. If confirmed, I believe this move will mirror the strength of the 2020 rally that preceded it. Using the measured move principle in technical analysis, the breakout projects a potential $3 per pound advance—taking copper to $8, which represents a 53% gain from current levels.

The Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX) is also forming an ascending triangle pattern, though it has yet to break out. However, with copper’s bull market gaining momentum, a breakout in COPX appears likely in the near future. The breakout in copper miners should also invigorate silver mining stocks (and the SIL and SILJ ETFs) given the significant overlap between the two as silver is often a byproduct of copper mining.