While the institutional / sovereign accumulation continues for both gold and silver I'm cautious short term. Especially when considering the huge derivative short in silver. I've experienced too many since 2000 to discount an option expiry as this Friday's. It's feeling jittery today; I've the ebejeebees and had a prophetic Freudian dream with 8 Buddhists lined up in front of a port potti and 33 geese flying overhead. Watch sliver.
Thank you so much,as always. Very interesting,and very well researched article,as usual,with very positive conclusions! Yes, quite agree with you about investing with long term horizons! In my case, 17 years so far! Really grateful to you,very best wishes, RichardBear
I agree with your overall conclusions Jesse. The current sideways movement has reduced the overextended RSI back during the rise to ATHs and the trading is just adding fuel to the next significant rise. I suspect the Fed may be the catalyst for the next leg up, maybe with an interest rate drop due to higher than expected unemployment, or a poor treasuries auction where no one wants to buy US debt ( except the Fed). Watch this space!!!
Yes, I observed that as well, but I'm not worried. The dollar is still in a weak technical position as long as it is below the 100 resistance level + it pulled back today. Nothing moves in a straight line.
Yes, I've noticed that too—and in fact, this pattern has persisted for decades, consistently suppressing the prices of gold and silver compared to where they would be in a free, unmanipulated market.
Did you see Peter st onge s ..great description of INflation..
BALLOON - Best description I have seen so far...
Why no Tariff Inflation?
And Why Haven't they Yet
Peter St Onge
Jul 18
The Long-Run
But in the long run Bessent is largely correct -- once everybody adjusts, tariffs squeeze the balloon. Imports go up, everything else gets cheaper.
Including, by the way, Made in America stuff that competes with imports.
Only “largely” correct because even in the long-run you have a permanent hunk of inflation in the form of tariff revenue paid to government.
As in, it's a balloon, but part of the air leaked to federal tariff revenue.
In fact, tariffs could be deflationary if they boost domestic production enough. Because at that point you’ve got more stuff for dollars to chase -- the opposite of inflation, which is more money chasing goods.
I'm not quiet on silver. I write updates on it about once a week and another is coming in a few days.
Silver is only down 2.5% from its peak. I honestly wouldn't call that getting creamed. If you consider that creamed, you are taking too short-term of a view.
I'm in this for the long-haul: 5 to 10 years. I'm not day trading silver here.
I have been bullish from much lower levels and have been writing about it all year, so I'm sitting pretty in silver along with scores of other subscribers who have been reading my reports like this one from September:
Silver is in an excellent technical position, but it's completely normal for asset prices to pull back a bit after a big surge, and then build up energy for its next run higher. Nothing moves in a straight line.
This is a game that requires faith, deep conviction, and patience. It's not a get-rich-quick scheme.
While the institutional / sovereign accumulation continues for both gold and silver I'm cautious short term. Especially when considering the huge derivative short in silver. I've experienced too many since 2000 to discount an option expiry as this Friday's. It's feeling jittery today; I've the ebejeebees and had a prophetic Freudian dream with 8 Buddhists lined up in front of a port potti and 33 geese flying overhead. Watch sliver.
I hear you, but I don't like to bet against confirmed uptrends.
While silver could certainly dip on Friday, the technicals are looking very good and both gold and copper are confirming silver's uptrend.
That's what I see at the current moment, but if the facts change, I'll change.
Thank you so much,as always. Very interesting,and very well researched article,as usual,with very positive conclusions! Yes, quite agree with you about investing with long term horizons! In my case, 17 years so far! Really grateful to you,very best wishes, RichardBear
Thank you! Excellent- it’s nice to see the reward for that foresight and patience.
So if the case is bullish we should see evidence of that in September?
There is a higher probability of it breaking out in September, which is when trading volume and news flow picks up again.
But that doesn't mean it can't break out before then, of course.
It's just a matter of probabilities.
I agree with your overall conclusions Jesse. The current sideways movement has reduced the overextended RSI back during the rise to ATHs and the trading is just adding fuel to the next significant rise. I suspect the Fed may be the catalyst for the next leg up, maybe with an interest rate drop due to higher than expected unemployment, or a poor treasuries auction where no one wants to buy US debt ( except the Fed). Watch this space!!!
Thanks! Yes, I agree with you on all of those points.
Gold is just waiting for another catalyst to break out. Until then, it's just building up energy.
a great report . when about 1% of wallstreet wake up silver and g
old could sky rocket.
Thanks! Yes, I agree and believe that will happen over the next few years, sending silver much higher.
Just as silver passed 39$, the dXY rises at the New jerk open, and trashes the miners...
as if <20$ drop would crash Newmont with 8 %.
Deliberat fiddeling with the GDX, metals and miners.
Is this the Plunge protection team working over time..? or is it just a trader joe at JP morgue. ?
Yes, I observed that as well, but I'm not worried. The dollar is still in a weak technical position as long as it is below the 100 resistance level + it pulled back today. Nothing moves in a straight line.
Also see a pattern where little action in Hkong, up some in londum,
but snacked at the N:Y open...like clock work...
and then up 49$ + and just slid all the way back now....
zig zagging traders on both sides...? To scare them away...before mega Spike..?
Yes, I've noticed that too—and in fact, this pattern has persisted for decades, consistently suppressing the prices of gold and silver compared to where they would be in a free, unmanipulated market.
Even so, both metals are now breaking free.
Hi Bubble Bubble
Did you see Peter st onge s ..great description of INflation..
BALLOON - Best description I have seen so far...
Why no Tariff Inflation?
And Why Haven't they Yet
Peter St Onge
Jul 18
The Long-Run
But in the long run Bessent is largely correct -- once everybody adjusts, tariffs squeeze the balloon. Imports go up, everything else gets cheaper.
Including, by the way, Made in America stuff that competes with imports.
Only “largely” correct because even in the long-run you have a permanent hunk of inflation in the form of tariff revenue paid to government.
As in, it's a balloon, but part of the air leaked to federal tariff revenue.
In fact, tariffs could be deflationary if they boost domestic production enough. Because at that point you’ve got more stuff for dollars to chase -- the opposite of inflation, which is more money chasing goods.
I didn't see his comment, but it is congruent with the fact that inflation is solely caused by monetary expansion.
As Milton Friedman famously said, "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon."
A lot of TA guys still saying there will be a pull back to 2800 to 3000 USD. 2026? But nealy all say up to 10000 usd next 5, 6, 7 years
Do you have any thoughts in this idea of a big pull back short term? Thanks
You are quiet about Silver after I got creamed in the last few days.
I'm not quiet on silver. I write updates on it about once a week and another is coming in a few days.
Silver is only down 2.5% from its peak. I honestly wouldn't call that getting creamed. If you consider that creamed, you are taking too short-term of a view.
I'm in this for the long-haul: 5 to 10 years. I'm not day trading silver here.
I have been bullish from much lower levels and have been writing about it all year, so I'm sitting pretty in silver along with scores of other subscribers who have been reading my reports like this one from September:
https://thebubblebubble.substack.com/p/heres-when-will-silver-surge-like
Silver is in an excellent technical position, but it's completely normal for asset prices to pull back a bit after a big surge, and then build up energy for its next run higher. Nothing moves in a straight line.
This is a game that requires faith, deep conviction, and patience. It's not a get-rich-quick scheme.