After an explosive run since late August across all precious metals and mining stocks, a pullback was inevitable, and that’s exactly what we saw on Friday. Spot gold dropped 1.67%, while silver fell 4.29%. That move sparked a wave of concern, with many people reaching out to ask whether the precious metals rally had peaked and if it was time to sell.
I’m writing this update to clarify where precious metals and miners currently stand and to reassure everyone that Friday’s volatility was simply a minor blip in a very powerful secular bull market that I expect to continue for at least another decade. Let’s dive in.
Let’s start with gold, specifically COMEX gold futures. The price surged from $3,400 in mid-August to $4,400 by Thursday, which is an impressive $1,000 move, or roughly a 30% increase in just two months. Given that gain, Friday’s pullback of less than 2% is hardly cause for concern. Pullbacks like this are typical and expected after a strong rally. It is completely normal market behavior and not a reason to panic.
The great news is that gold is still holding above the critical $4,000 level, which previously acted as a resistance level but has now become a support level. I believe this marks a new price floor for gold moving forward.
It’s not surprising that gold pulled back slightly on Friday, as it had become overheated in recent weeks, something I pointed out beforehand. This was evident in its stretched position above the 200-day moving average in addition to the overbought reading from the Relative Strength Index (RSI) beneath the price chart.
However, this is not a reason to panic or sell. It simply indicates that gold needs a period of cooling off, which is both healthy and expected. I actually welcome this kind of pause, as I would much rather see gold rise in an orderly and sustainable fashion. A cooldown period is not a crash; it is simply a period of healthy sideways consolidation.
Also, I want to highlight something encouraging: gold remains in a confirmed uptrend, as indicated by its upward-sloping 200-day moving average (MA). This signals that the bias for gold is clearly to the upside, and I’m choosing to stay aligned with that bullish trend while tuning out the noise and negativity from the peanut gallery. You can learn more about this important principle in the tutorial I wrote.
Another reason I’m not at all surprised to see gold experience a temporary peak and enter a brief consolidation phase is that it just hit my $4,400 price target, which I set all the way back on August 4th, before the explosive $1,000 rally.
That target was based on the measured move principle, and it hit it exactly on the nose, which I’m very pleased about. I’ve received a lot of positive feedback from subscribers who followed that projection. If you’d like to understand the reasoning behind it, I recommend reading that original report linked above to learn more.
Now that gold has hit my $4,400 price target, I want to show you my next projection for what I believe gold will do from here. This is a theory based on solid information and experience, but it is not a hard prediction or a guarantee. Since gold has reached $4,400 and pulled back, I believe it is likely to enter a cooldown period or move sideways in consolidation, but not crash or enter a bear market.
I firmly believe that gold is in a long-term secular bull market that has at least another decade to go, and that it will rise to at least $15,000 an ounce in real terms, and that is before hyperinflation inevitably occurs. Read this detailed report to learn why I’m extremely bullish on gold over the long term.
I believe gold’s consolidation will take place above the new $4,000 floor, and that it will likely fluctuate around this level for a while, possibly re-testing $4,000 as it works off its overbought condition. This process should help it conserve and build energy for its next move higher, which I expect will take gold to $5,000 in 2026.
That outlook is shared by major institutions including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, HSBC, and Société Générale. In addition, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, who is not exactly known for being a gold advocate, recently said that gold “could easily go to $5,000 or $10,000 in environments like this.”
To give you even more encouragement that gold’s secular bull market is far from over, consider the physical gold holdings of America’s most popular gold ETF, the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD). Although gold has surged 134% over the past two years, GLD’s holdings have only increased by a modest 27%.
This indicates that American investors are only beginning to get onboard this long-term gold bull market, and they still have a lot of catching up to do. That stands in contrast to Asian investors, who were among the earliest drivers of the bull market (learn more). As U.S. demand catches up even further, it will push gold significantly higher. With that backdrop, there is no reason to believe this bull market will simply stop at $4,400.
Next, let’s look at silver, which was hit a bit harder than gold on Friday, with a decline of 4.29%. This is still not surprising considering the strong rally over the past six months, during which silver surged from $30 to $54, marking an 80% increase.
The good news is that despite Friday’s pullback, COMEX silver futures remain above the critical $50 level, which I’ve been emphasizing as an important threshold (learn more). I believe this now represents the new price floor for silver, similar to the $4,000 level in gold.
Next, let’s look at the spot price of silver, which I’ve been tracking alongside COMEX silver futures due to the recent large price divergence between the two. This unusual gap is the result of backwardation, a condition caused by the current physical silver shortage (learn more).
At the moment, the spot price is trading $1.81 per ounce above the futures price. This creates some complications for technical analysis, particularly when trying to determine which price to reference when evaluating key levels such as $50 per ounce.
The encouraging news is that despite Friday’s pullback, the spot price of silver is at $51.91, holding well above the critical $50 level. This means that last week’s breakout is still intact.
Just like gold, silver became a bit overheated in recent weeks, as indicated by its extended distance above the 200-day moving average and the overbought reading on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shown below the price chart. That’s perfectly normal and not a reason to panic or sell.
However, it does indicate that a cooldown period, likely in the form of sideways consolidation, is in order so that silver can work off its overbought condition. I believe this will set the stage for even stronger gains ahead, ultimately driving silver to several hundred dollars an ounce in the course of this secular bull market over the next five to ten years (learn more).
Also, for some added encouragement, silver, like gold, is still in a confirmed uptrend, as indicated by its upward-sloping 200-day moving average (MA). This signals that the bias for silver is clearly to the upside, and I’m choosing to stay aligned with that bullish trend while tuning out the noise and negativity from the Debbie Downers. You can learn more about this important principle in the tutorial I wrote.
Also, just as with gold, American investors have only recently begun to show interest in silver. This is evident from the holdings of the flagship iShares Silver Trust (SLV), which have increased by only 19% over the past two years, even as silver has surged an impressive 160%.
This is a clear sign that silver’s secular bull market is still in its early stages, as widespread investor participation has yet to materialize. So far, most investors have only cautiously started to buy into silver. But once enthusiasm grows and they jump in more aggressively, I believe silver will move into triple-digit territory in the not-too-distant future.
Next, let’s look at platinum, which has seen a powerful 76% surge over the past five months, so its 7.73% pullback on Friday is not surprising. Like gold and silver, platinum became overbought based on its position relative to the 200-day moving average and the RSI. However, that does not signal a crash; it simply indicates that a cooldown period is likely.
It is also worth noting that the 200-day moving average is currently sloping upward, which indicates that platinum is still in a confirmed uptrend. At this stage, maintaining a bullish outlook is the most logical stance, since anything else would be fighting the trend, which puts the odds against you.
Read my recent in-depth report to learn why I’m bullish on platinum over the long term.
Palladium is in the exact same boat as its sibling platinum, and my long-term bullish stance on it remains unwavering despite its 9.35% pullback on Friday. While that decline may seem steep, it really isn’t when you consider how much palladium has surged recently.
It also shouldn’t come as a surprise, given palladium’s long-standing reputation for volatility. That’s why I’ve recommended limiting exposure to 5% of a portfolio or less, unless you are a highly skilled trader with the risk tolerance to handle large fluctuations.
Read my recent report on the long-term bullish case for palladium, as well as the tactical update where I covered its breakout and explained how it could become a 10x investment over the next decade.
Next, let’s move on to mining stocks, using the popular VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) for the chart below. The other well-known gold and silver mining ETFs in this sector (GDXJ, SIL, and SILJ) are in the same position as GDX, as they are all highly correlated with each other.
Like the metals themselves, the miners became a bit overheated in recent weeks, pulled back on Friday, and are due for a brief and healthy cooldown period to work off their overbought conditions. The good news is that their 200-day moving averages are all sloping upward, which indicates that the mining sector is in a strong, confirmed uptrend and that it would be unwise to do anything other than stay aligned with that trend.
I believe the bull market in gold and silver mining stocks has at least another decade to go, as I explained in my detailed report. That’s why I’m tuning out all the negativity and focusing solely on the tremendous upside from here.
Yes, gold and silver mining stocks are volatile—especially the juniors. If that level of volatility doesn’t sit well with you, it’s important to seriously consider whether this sector is a good fit for your personality and financial situation. This space offers tremendous potential to build wealth, but it requires a strong tolerance for risk and a mindset more aligned with a venture capitalist than someone focused on capital preservation or peace of mind. Personally, I’m cut from that mold (see Apollo Silver), but in my experience, most people are not.
In the rest of today’s update, I want to emphasize the importance of being mentally prepared for pullbacks and corrections, even though precious metals and mining stocks are in a powerful long-term bull market with at least a decade more to go. I continue to see gold heading well above $15,000 an ounce and silver reaching $300+, but the path to those targets will not be a straight line.
For example, even during the epic gold bull market of the 2000s, which saw gains of over 630%, there were numerous corrections of 10% or more along the way. That pattern holds true for every major bull market, whether it’s in Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Bitcoin, or gold. The current precious metals bull market will be no different. Corrections of 10%, 20%, or even more are inevitable, and there will be multiple over time. The key is to be prepared, not caught off guard.
Moving on to another example, the bellwether S&P 500 stock index has experienced numerous significant pullbacks during its ongoing bull market since 2009, yet it has rebounded each time and has now achieved an impressive gain of 921%:
The U.S. housing market continues to soar, but it too has seen its share of pullbacks along the way:
Although Bitcoin is widely celebrated for the wealth it has created for early investors, it has endured quite a few intense and nerve-wracking plunges along the way:
Apple, one of the most remarkable success stories in stock market history, has encountered multiple bear markets throughout its ascent:
Nvidia stock, now in the spotlight for its tremendous gains, has faced several significant plunges along the way:
Next, I want to highlight another major reason why I remain so steadfast and calm in my conviction that gold and silver only began their secular bull market about two years ago and still have at least a decade to run. This is exactly why I refuse to panic during routine pullbacks like the one we saw on Friday. In early 2024, a major new capital rotation cycle began, which marked the start of gold’s secular bull market. This extremely important development will also lift silver, platinum, palladium, and mining stocks alongside it.
To truly understand capital rotation and the dynamic between stocks and gold, which are essentially competing asset classes, it is helpful to examine the long-term chart of the Dow-to-Gold ratio. This ratio is calculated by dividing the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) by the price of gold. I focus on the Dow because it provides the longest historical data, but the same analysis can be applied to other stock indices, including international ones such as Japan’s Nikkei and the UK’s FTSE 100.
The Dow-to-gold ratio chart I’ve created below spans all the way back to the early 1940s, using 3-month bars and a logarithmic price scale. When the ratio is rising, it indicates that stocks are outperforming gold; when it’s falling, gold is outperforming stocks. This chart is a powerful tool because it respects trendlines remarkably well—so much so that when the ratio breaks a key trendline, it signals the beginning of a new capital rotation era.
Stocks outperformed gold during several major periods: from the 1930s to the late 1960s amid the post–World War II economic boom, during the powerful bull market from 1982 to 2000, and again from 2012 to 2024 following the Great Recession. Conversely, gold outperformed stocks during the stagflationary years of the late 1960s through the early 1980s, and again in the dot-com bust era from the early 2000s to the early 2010s.
Notably, a new era began in the spring of 2024, when the Dow-to-Gold ratio broke the uptrend line that had been in place since 2012. This breakdown signals a major change in market dynamics, with a powerful wave of capital beginning to move out of stocks and into gold. As a result, I expect gold to move much higher from here, with silver benefiting from the same long-term trend. It is also important to note that these capital rotation cycles typically last 10 to 15 years, which means we are still in the early stages of a precious metals bull market and at the beginning of a prolonged period of underperformance for stocks.
Gold still has an enormous amount of fuel left to propel it to $5,000, $10,000, $15,000 and beyond. One key factor is that the U.S. is currently experiencing the largest stock market bubble in history by practically every measure—including the total U.S. stock market capitalization-to-GDP ratio.
This metric, often called the ‘Buffett Indicator,’ has been described by Warren Buffett himself as ‘the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.’ With the equity market stretched to extreme valuations, gold’s upside potential remains massive.
Another important reason I believe gold and silver will continue to rise from here is the relentless growth of both the U.S. and global money supply. It never stops rising, and I expect it to accelerate further as we move into the final stages of the fiat, or paper money, experiment. Fiat currencies have always ended badly, and unfortunately, the U.S. dollar, euro, British pound, and Japanese yen will be no different.
Read my recent report to learn more about how the main driver of gold’s bull market is the ongoing debasement of paper currencies.
To further expand on my previous point about what happens when fiat, or paper, currencies collapse, and they all do, typically within 50 years or less, take a look at the chart below showing the hyperinflation of Germany’s Weimar Republic from 1918 to 1923. During that time, the value of one German gold mark, when priced in paper marks, surged from just 1.24 to one trillion, as the currency was printed into oblivion. It ultimately became worthless, destroying the savings of countless Germans who had trusted in it, including my own great-grandparents.
Although today’s circumstances are not exactly the same, and the Weimar hyperinflation was triggered largely by burdensome World War I reparations, I believe the U.S. dollar and other modern fiat currencies will face the same ultimate outcome. Sure, the United States does not owe war reparations to France and Britain, but our equivalent is a $38 trillion national debt that is increasing by $1 trillion every 100 days. This does not even include an additional $73 trillion in unfunded liabilities. I mention this in response to those who argue that Germany’s hyperinflation is not relevant or applicable to the current situation in the United States. I strongly disagree.
The reason I like to show how gold performed during Germany’s hyperinflation is because it provides a model for the direction gold is heading in the not-too-distant future. This is one of the key reasons I say there is no need to panic about consolidations, pullbacks, or even larger corrections.
There is no doubt in my view that gold is ultimately going much higher from here, first to $15,000 in real terms, and eventually into the trillions in nominal terms as the global collapse of paper money and the Keynesian monetary experiment unfold.
What lies ahead will greatly reward precious metals investors, even those who may have entered the market when it was somewhat overheated. The long-term trajectory will be very forgiving, and this is yet another reason why gold at $4,300 an ounce is still very low compared to where I believe it is going from here.
Next, I want to draw your attention to the chart below, which is the same chart of Weimar Germany’s hyperinflation, but this time I’ve zoomed in slightly by removing the final and most extreme year, 1923. It turns out that on the way to gold’s ultimate 80,645,161,290,223% surge when priced in paper marks, there were three steep corrections along the way: a 61% drop in 1920, a 21% correction in 1921, and a 27% pullback in 1922.
While it’s easy to focus on gold’s overall price gain from 1918 to 1923, hindsight can cause us to overlook the sharp corrections that occurred along the way. Undoubtedly, some people panicked and sold their gold in exchange for paper marks during those pullbacks. Unfortunately for them, they missed out on the staggering 9,999,999,999,900% surge that followed over the next three years, and some may have even paid for that decision with their lives, as many were left destitute or starving as a result.
So if you’re feeling jittery after Friday’s minor pullback, it’s worth asking yourself: what would you have done as a German gold holder in 1920?
This is very important food for thought, as it will help you evaluate your own mindset, approach, and risk tolerance toward precious metals in today’s environment and, even more so, in the explosive and volatile times ahead.
As we conclude this admittedly lengthy update, I want to reassure you that the precious metals space remains strong. I encourage you not to worry about Friday’s pullback or the many future pullbacks that will inevitably occur during the next decade of this secular bull market.
Precious metals have had a very strong run over the past two months, and they simply need some time to rest and catch their breath, much like a runner after an intense sprint. The trend remains firmly upward, and now is the time to embrace that reality and tune out negativity, both from external sources and from within your own mind. Very exciting things lie ahead for precious metals, and I am honored that you have chosen me to help guide you through the times ahead.
If you’ve enjoyed this report or have any questions, comments, or thoughts, please give this post a like and share your thoughts in the comments below—I’d love to start a conversation and hear your perspective.
Disclaimer: the information provided in The Bubble Bubble Report and related content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, financial, or trading advice. Nothing in this publication constitutes a recommendation, solicitation, or offer to buy or sell any securities, commodities, or financial instruments.
All investments carry risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author and publisher disclaim any liability for financial losses or damages incurred as a result of reliance on the information provided.
I wasn’t worried about the silver price dive. It happened at the same time as the price of gold was being manipulated down too. I think it mostly affects traders who can make money from big precious metal price swings, but also they can lose BIG, ENORMOUS money amounts on big price swings too.
Great stuff. I am getting my son who is just getting starting in investing to add gold to his portfolio.