Although I’ve made numerous successful bullish calls on Bitcoin over the years, there are many glaring reasons why I never became a true believer in it.
Excellent article. Years ago I was quite optimistic about the sound money aspect of btc... and made a little profit along the way, but when the KYC started and then the wall st cartel started taking over on/off ramp infrastructure.. and then the whole Tether situation.. I was done.
As the above comment said, it must have been alot of work to write such a long article.. Thank you. I will upgrade.
Never ‘understood’ crypto. I’ve somewhere read the phrase ‘a limited supply of nothing’, and that is exactly how I feel about it. It has no intrinsic value and once the internet goes down -due to whatever- you’re left with nothing…
Great job! The argument that higher stock to flow is another blind spot. Fixed supply paired with unbounded growth creates credit limitations of which there are no historical precident. Gold's long term supply growth of 2% is a remarkable feature. Citing chapter 26 of "life after google" G. gilder.
Roy Sebag is another source who makes the argument about the 2% growth feature of gold. He’s very much arguing from Natural Law point of view. JP did a nice interview a while back.
I’m sure this report will agitate more than a few crypto dependent people who have watched Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies soar. I’m sure that many crypto investors count on them continuing to do so.
Your report so well written that the most vehement arguments made against this report quickly fall apart. I’ve read a few of the unhappy arguments made by crypto enthusiasts on Twitter. Crypto holders who depend on how valuations ever rising are understandably unhappy with your findings. Perhaps a bit panicked by the gravitas.
Well said, MotherSilverApe! I had to write this to counter the disinformation and misinformation over the past few weeks where people are dumping gold and silver in favor of the most ridiculous digital tokens, which is a very bad move.
Lots of good reading here. I'm holding/trading crypto but in the greater fool camp. I have a lot to learn, but from what I gather this is the major 5th wave top. What got you a subscribe was bullet #23 and speaking of God. Amen Brother in Christ, now to browse your other articles
Absolutely fascinating and is in fact exactly my thoughts on the whole crypto thing, only this version of the facts is far deeper and more highly interesting than my version but it shows that I was "sort of" on the right tracks. Reading this article was 2 hours well spent I'm my view and I'll no doubt spend 2 more reading it a second time in a day or so because it really is that good.
Great, detailed and thoughtful article about Bitcoin.
I, personally, am a bit more optimistic about Bitcoin. My investment thesis is that there is a high probability that Bitcoin (and only Bitcoin) can be a new asset class (a digital gold, if you will) and a low probability outcome that Bitcoin is the mother of all bubbles or something much more nefarious.
I focus on Bitcoin and only Bitcoin due to its decentralized nature (it can't be shut off), capped supply, and network effect.
Given my investment thesis about Bitcoin, for me, that means being invested in Bitcoin (and only Bitcoin) and MicroStrategy sufficiently enough to matter if the high probability outcome is true, but not enough to be material should it not be true.
Full disclosure: I am heavily invested in traditional commodity plays (gold, silver, oil, gas, etc.) and other assets that will benefit from the ongoing realignment to a multi-polar world, as well as unused powder (US Treasuries) for future buying opportunities inspired by Warren Buffett.
Thank you! Sure - that's a fair approach. And I think it's good that you aren't giving up on traditional commodity plays in favor of all-digital assets.
It's no easy task to write a report of this length...
Thank you very much for writing such a detailed report!
I will continue to wait patiently for the price of silver to rise.
Thank you! Yes, I am also waiting for it to rise and maintaining my optimism.
Excellent article. Years ago I was quite optimistic about the sound money aspect of btc... and made a little profit along the way, but when the KYC started and then the wall st cartel started taking over on/off ramp infrastructure.. and then the whole Tether situation.. I was done.
As the above comment said, it must have been alot of work to write such a long article.. Thank you. I will upgrade.
Thank you! Yes, it was a lot of work, but I wanted to get this important information out there.
You can still get no KYC crypto. There's plenty of no-KYC exchanges and decentralized exchanges. More than ever before.
Thank you for ADDING to my ever-growing list of reasons for us to avoid entering the crypto casino 🎰.
My pleasure! :)
Would you consider an interview on my precious metals YouTube channel (174,000 subscribers)?
Wow, that was a long read!
Thanks for the article.
Never ‘understood’ crypto. I’ve somewhere read the phrase ‘a limited supply of nothing’, and that is exactly how I feel about it. It has no intrinsic value and once the internet goes down -due to whatever- you’re left with nothing…
Yes, I consider it a report rather than article.
‘a limited supply of nothing’ - well said!
Great job! The argument that higher stock to flow is another blind spot. Fixed supply paired with unbounded growth creates credit limitations of which there are no historical precident. Gold's long term supply growth of 2% is a remarkable feature. Citing chapter 26 of "life after google" G. gilder.
Thank you - good points. I will look into those arguments further. I'm keeping a running list of issues with crypto.
Roy Sebag is another source who makes the argument about the 2% growth feature of gold. He’s very much arguing from Natural Law point of view. JP did a nice interview a while back.
Yes - I also believe that Jim Rickards also made that argument in his book "The New Case For Gold." I have to go back and check.
Is this why Target inflation is 2%?
Have you analyzed how much value Mr Sebag has created for Goldmoney shareholders since gold bottomed in 2015?
I’m sure this report will agitate more than a few crypto dependent people who have watched Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies soar. I’m sure that many crypto investors count on them continuing to do so.
Your report so well written that the most vehement arguments made against this report quickly fall apart. I’ve read a few of the unhappy arguments made by crypto enthusiasts on Twitter. Crypto holders who depend on how valuations ever rising are understandably unhappy with your findings. Perhaps a bit panicked by the gravitas.
As Gordon Rendell says below, “It’s sobering.”
Well said, MotherSilverApe! I had to write this to counter the disinformation and misinformation over the past few weeks where people are dumping gold and silver in favor of the most ridiculous digital tokens, which is a very bad move.
Awesome report. Thanks for your time and thought that you have given this. I can think but of one word to describe my reaction……sobering.
Thanks for reading it, Gordon!
Excellent, again, another post speaking Truth amid the current Bubble Of Everything
I had to add;
The Crypto topic reminds me of the Dire Straits 1985 song "Money For Nothing"
Now look at them yo-yos, that's the way you do it
You play the guitar on the MTV
That ain't workin', that's the way you do it
Money for nothin' and your chicks for free
Of course, not dismissing BTC and its groupies, I do trade it, but only 1% of my portfolio
Sitting back, it all makes me smile.
Lots of good reading here. I'm holding/trading crypto but in the greater fool camp. I have a lot to learn, but from what I gather this is the major 5th wave top. What got you a subscribe was bullet #23 and speaking of God. Amen Brother in Christ, now to browse your other articles
A fantastic piece of work mate and many aspects I have never considered before
Volatility and heavy manipulation. Reasons enough, hear the maxxis or saylor gets boring very fast.
Best breakdown of Shitcoin yet
Absolutely fascinating and is in fact exactly my thoughts on the whole crypto thing, only this version of the facts is far deeper and more highly interesting than my version but it shows that I was "sort of" on the right tracks. Reading this article was 2 hours well spent I'm my view and I'll no doubt spend 2 more reading it a second time in a day or so because it really is that good.
Man...Bravo.
Superb article, your perspective is spot on. Thanks
Great, detailed and thoughtful article about Bitcoin.
I, personally, am a bit more optimistic about Bitcoin. My investment thesis is that there is a high probability that Bitcoin (and only Bitcoin) can be a new asset class (a digital gold, if you will) and a low probability outcome that Bitcoin is the mother of all bubbles or something much more nefarious.
I focus on Bitcoin and only Bitcoin due to its decentralized nature (it can't be shut off), capped supply, and network effect.
Given my investment thesis about Bitcoin, for me, that means being invested in Bitcoin (and only Bitcoin) and MicroStrategy sufficiently enough to matter if the high probability outcome is true, but not enough to be material should it not be true.
Full disclosure: I am heavily invested in traditional commodity plays (gold, silver, oil, gas, etc.) and other assets that will benefit from the ongoing realignment to a multi-polar world, as well as unused powder (US Treasuries) for future buying opportunities inspired by Warren Buffett.
Thank you! Sure - that's a fair approach. And I think it's good that you aren't giving up on traditional commodity plays in favor of all-digital assets.