Gold & Silver Are Staging Powerful Breakouts

Amid a global scramble for physical gold and silver, both metals are breaking out, signaling the start of the next powerful phase in their bull markets.

Many investors dismissed gold and silver after President Donald Trump’s victory in the November election. However, his first two weeks in office have proven exceptionally strong for both metals. While sentiment toward precious metals had been at a low point in recent months, I’ve consistently argued that this pessimism was unwarranted—gold and silver were merely consolidating before resuming their bullish trajectory. Now, with mounting evidence of a global rush for physical gold and silver, both metals are breaking out, signaling that the next phase of their bull markets is underway.

The big story this week centered on speculation over whether President Trump will impose tariffs on imported goods—and whether gold and silver will be affected. In a recent piece, I discussed how the mere threat of tariffs was already roiling the precious metals market. Now, just days later, massive shipments of gold from London to New York in anticipation of potential tariffs have led to a bullion shortage in London, the world’s most important gold trading hub. As this physical supply squeeze becomes apparent—contrasting sharply with the abundance of "paper" gold and silver—both metals are surging.

Let’s start with gold, which continues its strong rally after breaking out of the triangle pattern I highlighted back in December. As I’ve emphasized, this breakout strongly suggests that gold’s 2024 bull market didn’t end with the early-November sell-off. Instead, it is gaining momentum, likely extending well into 2025. In my view, gold is now on track to target $3,000, with the potential to reach the low-$3,000s relatively quickly. The next key test for spot gold is a decisive close above the $2,780–$2,800 resistance zone that’s just overhead—an achievement that would confirm that the next phase of the bull market is officially underway.

Beyond tracking gold in U.S. dollars, I also closely monitor its price in euros, as this removes the impact of dollar fluctuations and provides a clearer picture of gold’s intrinsic strength. Recently, gold broke out of its €2,400–€2,600 trading range, reaching a new all-time high in euros. This breakout serves as a strong confirmation that gold’s bull market remains firmly intact, with plenty of upside potential ahead.

I also pay close attention to gold priced in euros, British pounds, and Swiss francs as this particular mix of currencies shows gold's movements very clearly. Gold priced in this mix recently closed above the key 7,200 resistance level signaling that the yellow metal is ready for liftoff once again.

Fortunately, silver is now rallying alongside gold. Today, it broke out of the consolidation pattern it had been stuck in since October—a strong bullish signal. For further confirmation of this breakout, I’m watching for COMEX silver futures to close decisively above the key $32–$33 resistance zone, which would reinforce the bullish momentum.

Just like with gold, I closely monitor silver priced in euros to strip out U.S. dollar fluctuations and get a clearer read on its intrinsic strength. The good news is that today, silver in euros broke above both the downtrend resistance line that had been in place since late October and closed above the key €29–€30 resistance zone—a level that has been a major hurdle since May. While I want to see this breakout hold, all signs point to silver being primed for liftoff.

Silver’s bullish move this week isn’t surprising. As I noted last week, silver sentiment had hit its lowest point in years, reflected in the elevated short interest in the popular iShares Silver ETF (SLV). According to contrarian logic, extreme pessimism often precedes a strong rally—making this breakout a textbook example of sentiment-driven reversals.

Chart courtesy of Macro Ops

One particularly intriguing development amid the global scramble for physical gold and silver is the surge in trading activity in the Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV). Unlike most silver-tracking ETFs, PSLV is fully backed by physical silver. Over the past week alone, it has traded an impressive 120.36 million shares—the highest volume since its inception in 2010. Meanwhile, non-physically backed ETFs like SLV have shown no unusual changes in trading activity. This divergence strongly reinforces the notion that demand is surging specifically for physical silver rather than "paper" silver, signaling that a silver squeeze may be underway.

My proprietary Synthetic Silver Price Index (SSPI)—an indicator I developed to validate silver’s price movements—is also trending upward, further reinforcing the positive developments occurring in silver. The SSPI averages the prices of copper and gold, with copper adjusted by a factor of 540 to prevent gold from disproportionately influencing the index. The SSPI closely mirrors silver’s price movement, even though silver itself is not an input. The SSPI is rapidly approaching the 2,600–2,640 resistance zone, which has served as a key ceiling for much of the past year. A decisive close above this zone would signal a strong bullish breakout, indicating that another bull run for silver has likely started.

Beyond investing in gold and silver themselves, I also track and invest in gold and silver mining stocks. While these stocks have faced prolonged struggles, I believe they’re on the verge of a significant bull market as the overall precious metals bull market gains momentum. A key indicator of this shift is the large cap VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX), which recently broke out of a long-term triangle pattern that dates back to 2011—a highly bullish development. For confirmation of this breakout, I’m watching for GDX to close decisively above the critical $42–$46 resistance zone.

Likewise, the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) broke out of a long-term triangle pattern in early 2024, signaling the start of a new bull market. For full confirmation, I’m now watching for a decisive close above the key $50–$60 resistance zone, which would solidify the bullish trend and open the door for much further upside.

When it comes to silver miners, I’m closely watching the Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL), which is currently in the process of breaking out of a long-term triangle pattern. For full bullish confirmation, I’m looking for a decisive close above the key $48–$52 resistance zone.

Finally, I’m keeping a close eye on the Amplify ETF Trust Junior Miners ETF (SILJ), which has moved sideways for much of the past decade. However, it has formed a long-term triangle pattern, and a breakout from this formation would be a highly bullish signal for junior silver miners, marking the start of a significant uptrend.

In summary, gold and silver are heating up again after a challenging few months. Gold has been the stronger of the two, as it sets new highs across nearly every major currency—a trend that appears far from over. While silver has lagged behind, I believe gold’s bullish momentum will help pull silver higher until Western investor sentiment improves significantly. When that shift occurs, demand for silver will surge, allowing it to outperform even gold. Additionally, as this precious metals bull market continues, gold and silver miners—long dormant—are poised for a powerful bull market. 2025 is shaping up to be a standout year for precious metals investors.