Gold got hit in 2008-9 when the market tanked, then went from about $750 to $1900 in 2 years. If that repeats, then ~$5,500 in 2027? What about silver?
Yes, gold fell for a time in late-2008 due to extreme liquidations of everything during the credit crunch and then soared because of the reaction to that, which was QE and zero interest rate policy (ZIRP).
Like I said in the report, I see gold soaring in reaction to the next wave of QE and ZIRP.
Btw, there is no hard and fast rule that gold must always get hit during recessions and stock bear markets.
For example, when the dot-com bubble burst in the early-2000s, gold was a beneficiary of the capital flowing out of those stocks:
I see silver hitting several hundred dollars per ounce in the longer run, but it's far more volatile and susceptible to downturns because much of its demand is industrial in nature, unlike gold.
Took note of timing between rate cuts, 17 years which is 16 times 388, or 17 years in trading days is 4284 which is 11 times 388 which is dominant number in all markets.
Superb article. I get the “everything bubble” concept and agree with the thesis. What I haven’t been able to wrap my mind around is the outcome of The Everything Bubble v. Hyperinflationary fiat currency collapse.
How does mega price deflation reconcile with mega price inflation? It’s like trying to forecast the winner of Godzilla v. King Kong: hard to predict, and perhaps that’s a fight I don’t want ringside tickets to.
Today's inflated asset prices will plunge in real, inflation-adjusted terms even if they drop slightly, go sideways, or rise slightly in nominal terms.
I see it being a more extreme form of the 1970s, when equities went sideways for over a decade in nominal terms, but didn't keep up with inflation, so they actually plunged in real terms (see chart):
In addition, I see gold, silver, and important commodities (particularly food, less so for industrial commodities) soaring in both nominal and real terms as capital flows out of equities and other speculative assets and into those commodities. It's going to be an epic wealth transference.
🤔Thanks for the great reply, Jesse. If I understand your vision, the everything bubble assets will undergo a prolonged deflation in real terms independent of their nominal price action, whereas what are now relatively undervalued assets (e.g., gold, silver—though we might consider these to be monetary assets) will achieve significantly higher relative valuations in a prolonged dynamic to reach a new relative value state of equilibrium.
There is always much to be learned from history.
Thank you so much for laying it out clearly for us!
Absolutely. Thanks for reading it!
Gold got hit in 2008-9 when the market tanked, then went from about $750 to $1900 in 2 years. If that repeats, then ~$5,500 in 2027? What about silver?
Yes, gold fell for a time in late-2008 due to extreme liquidations of everything during the credit crunch and then soared because of the reaction to that, which was QE and zero interest rate policy (ZIRP).
Like I said in the report, I see gold soaring in reaction to the next wave of QE and ZIRP.
Btw, there is no hard and fast rule that gold must always get hit during recessions and stock bear markets.
For example, when the dot-com bubble burst in the early-2000s, gold was a beneficiary of the capital flowing out of those stocks:
https://x.com/TheBubbleBubble/status/1864397284664058060
I'm going to write an article about that soon.
I see silver hitting several hundred dollars per ounce in the longer run, but it's far more volatile and susceptible to downturns because much of its demand is industrial in nature, unlike gold.
Excellent analysis 👏
Thanks, Faye! More to come.
Great job Jesse
Took note of timing between rate cuts, 17 years which is 16 times 388, or 17 years in trading days is 4284 which is 11 times 388 which is dominant number in all markets.
You can see more on X.
@desertman388
Interesting! I'll check it out.
Thanks a lot !
👍🏻
Merci pour cet article trés enrichissant.
Malheureusement, pas moyen de s'abonner à votre newsletter.
Merci de l'avoir lu. Pouvez-vous expliquer pourquoi il ne vous permet pas de vous abonner ?
C'est résolu. Me voilà abonné 😉
Super! Bienvenue à bord :)
J'ai eut l'assistance. Je n'ai pas de confirmation de paiement. Pas de solution apportees. Désolé
Love your in-depth analysis, thank you 👌
Thank you! I have a lot more content like this ahead :)
Superb article. I get the “everything bubble” concept and agree with the thesis. What I haven’t been able to wrap my mind around is the outcome of The Everything Bubble v. Hyperinflationary fiat currency collapse.
How does mega price deflation reconcile with mega price inflation? It’s like trying to forecast the winner of Godzilla v. King Kong: hard to predict, and perhaps that’s a fight I don’t want ringside tickets to.
Thanks, Stephen! Here's how I see it playing out:
Today's inflated asset prices will plunge in real, inflation-adjusted terms even if they drop slightly, go sideways, or rise slightly in nominal terms.
I see it being a more extreme form of the 1970s, when equities went sideways for over a decade in nominal terms, but didn't keep up with inflation, so they actually plunged in real terms (see chart):
https://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/MI-BA501_ABREAS_NS_20091227184814.gif
In addition, I see gold, silver, and important commodities (particularly food, less so for industrial commodities) soaring in both nominal and real terms as capital flows out of equities and other speculative assets and into those commodities. It's going to be an epic wealth transference.
Does that make sense?
🤔Thanks for the great reply, Jesse. If I understand your vision, the everything bubble assets will undergo a prolonged deflation in real terms independent of their nominal price action, whereas what are now relatively undervalued assets (e.g., gold, silver—though we might consider these to be monetary assets) will achieve significantly higher relative valuations in a prolonged dynamic to reach a new relative value state of equilibrium.
Yes, exactly.
Keeping things in perspective. Thank you!
Thanks for reading it!