Thanks for looking at gold in many major currencies. I always find it deceptive to look at gold purely in terms of USD movements, which can have its own swings up and down.
Thank you for your thorough research and the compelling, data-driven insights you've shared. They align well with your overarching thesis, which I find persuasive.
While I share your confidence in gold, my primary concern lies not with the metal itself but with the undeniable momentum behind Bitcoin and the potential global repositioning that may emerge between 2025 and 2026.
In an increasingly digital economy, how will physical gold fare against a new paradigm defined by decentralized digital assets like Bitcoin? We’ve never encountered a competitor of this nature before, and it introduces unprecedented variables.
I’d value your thoughts on how gold might adapt or coexist in this evolving landscape.
I firmly believe another Financial Black Swan will swim into view in 2025.
Perhaps 2025-2035 will see at a pessimistic level a Global Depression (long recession)? This would be good for Gold (and Silver) as risk off hedge.
The NBER team considers more than just the GDP when declaring a recession. They also look for "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production and wholesale-retail sales."
With US Federal Debt:GDP Ratio at 123%, and Debt at $36.4 TRN the debt is unsustainable, and for that reason, within the next 4 years I see Gold revalued at $10k+ as a means to reset the financial system - that is why Central Banks have been buying Gold in the last two years at the fastest rate since 1950!
Thanks for looking at gold in many major currencies. I always find it deceptive to look at gold purely in terms of USD movements, which can have its own swings up and down.
Thanks, Paul! Yes, I agree—looking at gold and silver in multiple currencies provides much greater insight than looking at it priced in dollars alone.
Fantastic analysis and thank you again Jesse for providing an outlook using multiple fiat currencies et al
Thank you!
Always excellent simple to understand analysis.
Thanks, Kin!
Gold is for those, that trust NO one,but the metal it self.
Bitcoin is for those, that trust EVERY one, hoping " the blockchain system" and the lights, keep going.
Well said, M C.
Hi Jesse,
Happy New Year!
Thank you for your thorough research and the compelling, data-driven insights you've shared. They align well with your overarching thesis, which I find persuasive.
While I share your confidence in gold, my primary concern lies not with the metal itself but with the undeniable momentum behind Bitcoin and the potential global repositioning that may emerge between 2025 and 2026.
In an increasingly digital economy, how will physical gold fare against a new paradigm defined by decentralized digital assets like Bitcoin? We’ve never encountered a competitor of this nature before, and it introduces unprecedented variables.
I’d value your thoughts on how gold might adapt or coexist in this evolving landscape.
Best regards,
Faye
Thanks, Faye! I see hold holding up very well. Gold is an asset that has stood the test of time for 6,000 years. It's not obsolete by any means.
In addition, there are many reasons to be skeptical of Bitcoin and crypto in general as I recently explained in a big report:
https://thebubblebubble.substack.com/p/24-reasons-why-i-dont-believe-in
For those reasons, I strongly prefer gold to Bitcoin.
I firmly believe another Financial Black Swan will swim into view in 2025.
Perhaps 2025-2035 will see at a pessimistic level a Global Depression (long recession)? This would be good for Gold (and Silver) as risk off hedge.
The NBER team considers more than just the GDP when declaring a recession. They also look for "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production and wholesale-retail sales."
With US Federal Debt:GDP Ratio at 123%, and Debt at $36.4 TRN the debt is unsustainable, and for that reason, within the next 4 years I see Gold revalued at $10k+ as a means to reset the financial system - that is why Central Banks have been buying Gold in the last two years at the fastest rate since 1950!
Charlie - Lowercosta.com