Gold & Silver Drop as U.S. Rules Out Bullion Tariffs
Despite recent noise, precious metals remain strong and well-positioned heading into fall as trading volume returns.
I wanted to post a quick follow-up to the recent tariff saga that has whipsawed the gold market in recent days—and, by extension, silver, due to their close correlation. I first covered this on Saturday, and today brings the latest development. After some back-and-forth over whether gold bullion imports into the United States would be hit with tariffs, the Trump administration confirmed today that they will not be. In response, spot gold fell 1.62% and spot silver dropped 1.86%.
While some investors are understandably frustrated and confused by these abrupt shifts, this short-lived drama does nothing to change my bullish outlook on either metal. In this update, I’m going to explain why and I believe you’ll find it both reassuring and confidence-boosting.
For the past few months, I’ve showed that gold has been trading in a range between $3,200 and $3,500. This kind of consolidation is both normal and healthy after the strong gains we saw in the fall and spring. Strong-performing assets need time to digest their gains before resuming a bull market, and gold is no exception.
It’s even more understandable given that we’re deep in the dog days of summer, when volume and news flow are light as much of Wall Street is still in vacation mode. Markets need volume to move, and right now there simply isn’t enough “juice” to propel prices higher. But with only a few more weeks of summer left, there’s no reason to rush or worry about gold and silver.
My advice? Enjoy the season—spend time with family and friends, relax at the beach or pool, fire up the barbecue, and make the most of the warm weather. That’s exactly what I’m doing. When fall inevitably arrives, trading volume will return, and there’s a very good chance that precious metals will get back to rallying. Make no mistake—the bull market is still intact and still in its early stages.
The chart below of COMEX gold futures shows this summer’s trading range and Thursday night’s attempt to break above the $3,500 resistance level following speculation that gold bullion might be tariffed. However, there was no close above that level, so the breakout was not confirmed, as I noted in my Saturday update. My suspicions were confirmed when prices quickly retreated. Still, this is just market noise, and I believe another breakout attempt is coming soon that is far more likely to stick.
In recent weeks, I’ve been highlighting a triangle pattern forming within the summer 2025 trading range, as shown in the COMEX gold futures chart below. I’ve noted that a breakout above this compound formation should set the stage for gold to surge past $4,000. That outlook remains fully intact—we are simply waiting for confirmation.