Here's What You Need to Know About Silver Right Now

A look at silver’s technicals, what it will take for silver to finally thrive, and how its unique hybrid role as both an industrial and precious metal impacts its price behavior.

It’s been a couple of weeks since my last silver technical update, so it’s time to check in on where things stand. After the initial market shock from the Trump administration’s tariffs in early April, silver bounced beautifully off the key support levels I highlighted. The rebound has been so sharp that silver is now nearly back to where it was before the selloff—a bizarre round-trip move that has left plenty of heads spinning, mine included. Next, I’ll walk you through the key levels and signals to watch for when silver is finally ready to break into new territory and thrive.

Thanks to last week’s rebound, COMEX silver futures are now back above the critical $32 to $33 resistance zone that has capped the metal for most of the past year—largely due to intentional price suppression by the bullion banks (learn more). Now, the key is for silver to hold above that $32 to $33 zone and then make another push to close above the $34 to $35 resistance zone, which would signal that it’s ready to launch into a more powerful bull market.

I closely monitor silver priced in euros because it provides valuable insights by stripping away the influence of U.S. dollar fluctuations, offering a clearer view of silver’s intrinsic strength. In euro terms, silver tends to respect key levels such as €30, €31, and €32, forming well-defined areas of support and resistance.

After the early April tariff panic, silver was slammed back below the €29 to €30 resistance zone it had been struggling to break through for most of the past year. Thankfully, it’s now edging back into that zone and could be gearing up for another breakout attempt. Ultimately, I want to see silver clear both the €29 to €30 and €31 to €32 resistance zones to confirm that a true bull market has begun.

A look at the weekly COMEX silver futures chart helps put the big picture into perspective. The chart, looking back to 2020, highlights the significance of the $28–$30 support zone, which originally formed around the highs of late 2020 and early 2021. After the sharp selloff in early April, silver tested and rebounded off that zone—a sign of strength. Now, it just needs a strong push above its year-long ceiling to finally break out and thrive.

I often show an indicator I developed called the Synthetic Silver Price Index (SSPI), which is designed to validate silver’s price movements and filter out potential fakeouts. The SSPI is calculated as the average price of gold and copper, with copper adjusted by a factor of 540 to ensure gold doesn’t disproportionately impact the index. Remarkably, despite silver not being an input, the SSPI closely mirrors silver’s price movements.

During the latter half of 2024, the SSPI struggled below the critical 2,600 to 2,650 resistance zone until finally breaking out in early February of this year. That breakout was driven by bullish action in both gold and copper—two metals that heavily influence silver prices through algorithmic relationships. The SSPI’s breakout also flashed a bullish signal for silver, and despite a brief retest earlier this month, the breakout remains intact and continues to paint a positive picture for silver. Now it’s up to silver itself to finally follow through with a true breakout.

One major factor that stands to provide a powerful tailwind for silver, gold, and commodities in general is the U.S. Dollar Index’s nascent breakdown below the critical 100 support level, which has acted as a floor for the past couple of years.

As I wrote last week, this likely signals the start of a bear market in the dollar, which would be bullish for commodities due to their strong inverse relationship. Right now, the Dollar Index is trading below 100, but it’s still teetering near that level—it needs to stay firmly below it for this bearish dollar/bullish commodities thesis to remain intact.

Next, I want to discuss gold’s strong recent outperformance of silver, explore some of the reasons behind it, and explain what it means—starting with the chart below, which compares the prices of gold, silver, and copper.

As you can see, silver has been performing more like copper than gold lately—something I’ll dive into in just a moment:

Gold’s strong outperformance of silver has recently pushed the gold-to-silver ratio to a five-year high above 100. When the ratio moves above 100, it signals that silver is extremely undervalued relative to gold—often marking a prime buying opportunity and setting the stage for a powerful silver rally, just as it did in 2020. This is a key setup to watch closely.

The last time the gold-to-silver ratio spiked like it has recently was during the worst of the March 2020 COVID lockdowns—and it turned out to be an excellent time to buy silver. Silver promptly soared from $12 to $30, a 150% surge in just five months. I’m watching closely to see if a similar move is about to unfold this time.

Many people are confused about why silver has been so sluggish lately while gold has stolen the spotlight, surging over the past year from $2,000 to as high as $3,500 before its recent pullback. A lot of this confusion comes from the fact that most people don’t realize silver isn’t purely a precious metal like gold.

Instead, it’s a hybrid—part industrial metal, part precious metal—with the industrial side far outweighing the investment side. Because of this, silver’s price is highly sensitive to the ups and downs of the economy, often causing it to behave more like a risk asset than the traditional safe-haven role people typically expect.

As the pie chart below shows, the majority of silver demand—about 55%—comes from industrial use, while only around 20% comes from investment. In contrast, gold demand is driven largely by investment (44.57%) and jewelry (48.74%), with much of that jewelry serving as a form of investment as well, particularly in developing countries like India and China.

Because silver’s significant industrial demand is tied to the health of the global economy, it often pulls back or lags when recession risks rise—as they have recently, according to many different indicators (learn more):

Of course, silver’s industrial demand isn’t a negative—in fact, it’s a major strength and a key part of its extremely bullish long-term thesis (learn more). Industrial demand is the primary reason the silver market has been in a deficit for the past five years.

Also, unlike gold, silver used in industrial applications is largely consumed and lost, with little of it being recycled, which means its already limited supply is steadily shrinking—a dynamic that is ultimately very bullish. The only caveat is that silver can struggle during the early stages of a recession, but it typically takes off once central banks step in with stimulus measures—such as cutting interest rates and launching quantitative easing programs—to fight the downturn.

The past few months have been an awkward phase for silver as it’s chopped around without much clear direction, and I know it’s been disappointing—especially when contrasted with gold’s beautiful bull market over the past year. But I’m keeping my focus on the big picture and using this choppy period, while silver is still priced at super low levels (compared to where I believe it’s heading), as an opportunity to continue accumulating while I still can.

One of the many reasons I’m so bullish on silver for the years ahead is the massive cup-and-handle pattern visible on silver’s logarithmic chart, dating back to the 1960s. This pattern points to the potential for silver to eventually reach several hundred dollars per ounce during this bull market. To confirm this powerful setup, silver needs to close decisively above the critical $50 resistance level.

To wrap up, I’m impressed by how quickly silver rebounded after the tariff-driven market panic earlier this month—a clear sign of underlying strength. You just can’t keep a good metal down. I’m continuing to watch closely to see if silver can finally build the strength to smash through the key resistance levels overhead. Once it does, I believe silver will experience a bull market similar to gold’s.

At the same time, it’s important to stay mindful of silver’s significant industrial component, which makes it more sensitive to swings in the economic cycle compared to gold—a reality that helps explain silver’s recent sluggishness. Despite that, I remain extremely optimistic about silver’s long-term prospects. I actually welcome any short-term weakness as an opportunity to keep accumulating what I believe is the cheapest asset on earth right now—confident that a few years from now, it will all make complete sense.

If you’ve enjoyed this report or have any questions, comments, or thoughts, please give this post a like and share your thoughts in the comments below—I’d love to start a dialogue and hear your perspective.

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