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roger mason's avatar

this is another killer report! it's so nice to hear someone say, "i'm a libertarian".

however, the total u.s. debt is NOT a mere $37 trillion though. it has been well north\

of $200 trillion for years now. you MUST include unfunded liabilities as they are central to

what we actually owe. this puts such things as the Buffett Indicator on the planet

Pluto. in 5,000 years of recorded history world events have never been anywhere

near this insane. the Dark Ages looks like a picnic. today Satan runs the show, and

evil has finally triumphed. it's End Times, but Jesus isn't coming back, and the four

horsemen aren't gonna saddle up. prepare and be ready in every way you can.

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Jesse Colombo's avatar

Thanks, Roger! Yes, I'm a proud, long-time libertarian.

I agree - I'm hoping to write more about unfunded liabilities soon and create some related charts and graphics that I can use in future content. Thanks for reminding me.

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M C's avatar

Why has not 1 bank failed, in these volatile times

even the bullion shorts must be broke by now...?

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Jesse Colombo's avatar

Much of it comes down to inflated asset prices that are still covering up the real issues.

Once the bubbles in housing, stocks, etc. burst, I believe that's when banks will fail.

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Jim Miller's avatar

I am pretty sure some banks have failed, or would have failed if they had not been bailed out. See Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, First Republic Bank and Citizens Bank to name a few.

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Jesse Colombo's avatar

Yes, that was essentially the first wave, tied to the initial interest rate hikes in 2022.

I believe a much larger wave is coming when the bubbles in housing, stocks, and other assets finally burst.

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M C's avatar

yes, but that was last year....and the btft just papered it over and bailed out rich dudes way over the 250k limit...

I mean here in 2025...

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Dennisito's avatar

The case made in this report has many foundational pieces. This is looking less and less like a buy and hold (and add on dips) market and more of a swing trader's (long and short/inverse) market and it could be this way for quite some time, especially given how long the buy/hold/add market was in effect. It got to the point that people acted as if the market OWED them money and are flipping out now that the market has become choppy. There could be some hard lessons learned very soon. If the wealth effect unwinds and market participants become shellshocked and shy away from mindless passive investing, this could accelerate the unwinding of the Ponzi economy, which is based almost entirely on consumer confidence borne out of potentially fleeting "wealth."

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Jesse Colombo's avatar

Well said, Dennisito. I see this market as a hot potato—something to trade, not to marry.

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Chris's avatar

Thanks for the thoughtful analysis Jesse...appreciate it as always. A lot here to keep an eye on!

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Jesse Colombo's avatar

Thanks for reading it, Chris!

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Padre David's avatar

Jesse- From my pragmatic perspective the path forward should be the “road less taken”. To me that would be cutting deficits to maximum of ONLY 3% of Federal Budget annually AND GDP growth of 3% annually. But hope is not a strategy.

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Jesse Colombo's avatar

I would love to see that as well, but I'm not holding my breath! Haha.

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Charlie Amos's avatar

I still believe we are in a Stage Four Decline phase. The exception will be Gold miners, whose AISC will continue to assist FCF, as profit to bottom line is revised upwards thanks to the pet rock performance.

You will see many rallies but with lower highs and lower lows.

Stocks like Bank of America (BAC) are heading for a huge fall, once Derivatives Failure and Commercial Property failure risk becomes too much. Interest rates falling and defaults resulting from Stagflation will act as catalyst in Bank failures.

Lowercosta.com

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Jesse Colombo's avatar

Yes, that's my current view as well, unless the indices can smash through both their overhead resistance zones and the highs of December-January, which is unlikely.

Yes, I am very wary of banks as well. I don't see them doing well in the coming financial reset (to say the least!).

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Grey Rabbit Finance's avatar

Reaching a critical point in the stock markets! I just released my full technical analysis 🔥🔥🔥

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MGB71's avatar

Great article! Thank you.

You mentioned mining stocks. I am a big believer in metals. I have a small allocation in two Canadian silver mines. Was wondering if you could recommend a couple U.S. mining companies that you like?

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