Silver has officially broken out in a big way, kicking off its bull market. Multiple confirmations I was watching for have now been fulfilled, and silver still has plenty of fuel left in the tank.
Well done, Jesse. You are very concise. My question is once silver gets to $75 and over $100…will it stay there, or fall back down? In other words, based on all these factors is silver only ever going to go up over time with only congestion and small corrections before making further gains?
I ultimately see silver hitting several hundred dollars per ounce in the next 5 to 10 years along with a major global debt reset and fiat currency crisis.
Thanks, Jonathan! I don't like to make specific predictions far in advance, but my current expectation is that silver will gun for $50, which is a major resistance going back ~14 years, and then it will consolidate just under that level for a time, and then make another push through $50, and then really accelerate from there.
Like I said in the report, I ultimately see silver hitting several hundred dollars per ounce in the next 5 to 10 years.
Thanks. I appreciate the reply. Several hundred dollars would be great. I’m not as well-versed in the space as you so, let me ask you this question as a follow up, because this is the only thing that gives me pause:
How can silver be at several hundred dollars when the metal is used in so many products? Would these companies just find a replacement for silver or would they just have to increase the sales price of all the products that you use silver?
Lastly, is your estimation of silver reaching these three digit numbers independent of its relation to its use in industry and primarily as a real monetary value like gold?
Thank you for taking the time to do such a comprehensive report! I will have to read it several times over.
For those who do not believe that the paper price suppression is real, I can tell you it is, and it is much more extensive then people can imagine.
Part of the power of these high finance secrets is the public believing that thie silver price suppression talk is just a conspiracy theory. I can understand the psychology's behind silver manipulation better than the put and call contracts, and how it work to literally ensure the iron clad continuation of the silver price manipulation.
The paper silver price is as real as it gets. So what happened yesterday is nothing short of a miracle as the trading manoeuvres needed to break this are designed to be almost impossible to achieve.
I upgraded from FREE to PAID subscriber not long ago. Great decision/very small high value investment.
More superb analysis from Jesse Colombo. The way he approaches the question from all 360 degrees and angles really is compelling and helps boost my confidence in my own investment decisions.
The crucial argument I'm not buying is the alleged rising demand for "renewable Energy" which in itself is utter Nonsens. There's no such thing.
In countries with high adoption rates of solar (and often poor sunshine per year) the grids almost parallel face severe bottle necks, overproduction without buyers to balance the excess supply. Spain was a classical example, GER had three weekends this spring where at least brownouts were just minutes away.
With each extra MW the problems rise.
Mark my words: latest in 2026 we will have a major event in Europe.
Currently all "renewables" in China add up to 5.7 % with much faster growing coal plants. We'll watch and see. I btw own quite a bit of Au and Ag so wouldn't mind any increase, for whatever reason 😉
I hear you. Philosophically (as a libertarian), I'm not a believer in government-driven or mandated transitions to "green" energy either, though I am a proponent if it's driven by the free market.
But photovoltaics have indeed been a major driver of demand for silver, though it's just one piece of the puzzle.
Now that silver has broken out and is generating more attention from investors, rising investment demand is likely to become an increasingly important driver of silver's price for the foreseeable future.
Thanks for the elaborate reply. Dont misread me the other parts of your article are well reveived. Let's agree to disagree and time will Tell. Cheers 👋
I'm fully in agreement with you that "renewable energy" is a darn stupid idea, which would find zero traction in a free market.
Nevertheless I am also in agreement with Jesse that the demand (which stems from government intervention) is real and unlikely to disappear in the short or medium term.
I'm wondering why you believe the paper price will collapse. I understand that in some sense the paper will be worth less because you may not get silver. But - at the same time - from the point of view of the shorts scrambling to cover - buying paper is as good as buying physical - no? And thus they will buy paper to cover or physical to deliver - whichever is cheaper - which should keep the prices in line - or am I missing something?
Paper ultimately returns to its intrinsic value, which is zero.
Remember all the paper promises Enron had on its books as they were declaring bankruptcy? According to management, they were making a fortune "trading energy."
The fact that people believe that the paper silver is as good as physical silver is what enabled the system to get so topheavy in paper. Things could get interesting when there is a large demand for physical. Can't use paper in your solar panel.
Yes - all true - but I don't think silver is big enough to break the whole system. Gold might well be - but
(a) even if silver goes to 1000 - that's only $262 billion in losses. Small bailout by current standards - and the government always bails out the banks. A cynical person might suggest that this is now the sole purpose of our government :-).
(b) I'm guessing that there is sufficient silver above ground (especially at $1000 per oz where all sorts of silver will magically appear) to meet the actual, real physical demand and thus the paper price will hold.
I think the system breaks when gold does this - not silver by itself.
Well said, George. Paper silver will likely continue to function normally in the shorter-term, but I see things breaking after silver has surged from $50 to $100 and beyond, especially in conjunction with a messy and chaotic global financial and monetary reset.
And you're right that there is no substitute for physical silver for the real industrial users who need it and can't use SLV or COMEX futures as a replacement! Haha.
In the shorter-term, yes, demand for "paper" silver is likely to contribute upward pressure on the price of silver across the board.
But I expect the run for physical silver and the dumping of paper silver to occur later on after silver has surged from $50 to $100 and beyond, especially in conjunction with a messy and chaotic global financial and monetary reset.
Financial stress causes things to break, and the derivatives market is basically a giant house of cards.
As Warren Buffett famously stated, "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked."
OK - I think we're broadly in agreement then. Silver won't break by itself. The failure of the derivative complex is not going to result just in silver paper being worthless - but potentially almost everything.
Have you read David Webb's "The Great Taking"? He argues that our institutions are preparing to sieze *all* paper (every investment in your brokerage account, margined or not) as collateral in the event of clearing house failures stemming from derivative market failure. I am not in a position to judge whether he is correct here - but it wouldn't surprise me.
The problem - as a retiree - is - what do I do about this?
I cannot liquidate everything and sit smauglike atop a pile of gold and jewels waiting for the crash :-) - (1) because I might be waiting for a long time without any income, (2) because it's unhealthy, and (3) because Bilbo and a scrum of thieving dwarves might show up at my mountain and pilfer it.
Even in terms of silver I cannot hold a trading position in physical - the spread on silver eagles - or even 1000oz bars - is too large to trade. And - as far as I can see there is little difference between
- a futures position
- an ETF position
- a COMEX receipt (the kind you get when you stand for delivery at most brokers - where you get a warehouse receipt but you still cannot actually take possession).
So I continue to trade - hoping I will judge the time to get out of Dodge correctly...
Thanks Jesse for your prompt, detailed and comprehensive analysis. The technical boxes are checked with SIL and SILJ knocking on the door. The technicals are in agreement with the fundamentals; 5 years of deficits and demand increasing. It is significant and potentially potent when the technicals and fundamentals concur.
The cup and handle is an extremely powerful chart pattern. This is not a 1-2 year pattern. The cup formed over 30 years with the handle forming over the past 14 years. It like a pressure cooker with the swap dealers attempting to keep the lid secure. They have had their way for a long time. However, they are about to discover that there is a new sheriff in town.
Well known that most (not all) silver is mined as a by product mainly alongside copper (the primary target). Can someone explain how (all else equal) a copper price rocketing higher is Bullish for the silver price? Thanks.
Hi Jesse, thank you for an incredibly helpful and well researched article. Very encouraging! I hope that the silver breakout extends to gold? Question please? Another Substack site ( I can provide the link if you like) has posted the following: "Starting August 1, the U.S. will slap a 30% tariff on gold and silver imports from Mexico and the European Union. The immediate result? Imported silver will surge to $50 per ounce, and gold will flirt with an unprecedented $4,400 per ounce. " . However, I asked Chat GPT about this, and they did confirm the information about the tariffs, but did NOT agree about the effect on the price of metals worldwide. Would be grateful for your thoughts! Thank you as always, and very best wishes, RichardBear
Yes, there is a good chance that silver's strong performance will also draw additional interest to precious metals overall, including gold.
As I see it now, gold is just consolidating in a healthy sideways manner as it works off its overbought condition after the strong gains earlier this year.
It may continue to do so as long as volume remains low in typical summer trading, but is likely to stage a breakout attempt after that and try to run from $3,500 to ~$4,000, which would give an additional boost to silver.
That potential tariff on August 1 is interesting and I will look into that further. I imagine it would boost U.S. domestic gold and silver prices on the futures market, but it's difficult to fully predict the effects.
If I find anything notable, I will definitely write an update about it, so stay tuned.
The creators of SLV could be entirely honest, of good intent, and have done everything by the book - and even so - the fact that it can be shorted by other parties, allows for there to be more shareowners than actual silver.
I added 100 Toz Ag maple coin year 2021 before the report. Been following Jesse work to build the confidence to pull the trigger. Will continue to do dollar cost averaging regardless of short term price movement. Wealth preservation begin with discipline to keep real money (Ag and Au). Why bank are called 银行 (it mean silver bank in Chinese). There must be a really good reason which we slow come to understand.
Well done, Jesse. You are very concise. My question is once silver gets to $75 and over $100…will it stay there, or fall back down? In other words, based on all these factors is silver only ever going to go up over time with only congestion and small corrections before making further gains?
It will drop I guess like the other times it went up? I plan to sell what I have at $60 or $70,
I ultimately see silver hitting several hundred dollars per ounce in the next 5 to 10 years along with a major global debt reset and fiat currency crisis.
The risk is firmly to the upside, in my view.
Thanks, Jonathan! I don't like to make specific predictions far in advance, but my current expectation is that silver will gun for $50, which is a major resistance going back ~14 years, and then it will consolidate just under that level for a time, and then make another push through $50, and then really accelerate from there.
Like I said in the report, I ultimately see silver hitting several hundred dollars per ounce in the next 5 to 10 years.
Thanks. I appreciate the reply. Several hundred dollars would be great. I’m not as well-versed in the space as you so, let me ask you this question as a follow up, because this is the only thing that gives me pause:
How can silver be at several hundred dollars when the metal is used in so many products? Would these companies just find a replacement for silver or would they just have to increase the sales price of all the products that you use silver?
Lastly, is your estimation of silver reaching these three digit numbers independent of its relation to its use in industry and primarily as a real monetary value like gold?
Thank you for taking the time to do such a comprehensive report! I will have to read it several times over.
For those who do not believe that the paper price suppression is real, I can tell you it is, and it is much more extensive then people can imagine.
Part of the power of these high finance secrets is the public believing that thie silver price suppression talk is just a conspiracy theory. I can understand the psychology's behind silver manipulation better than the put and call contracts, and how it work to literally ensure the iron clad continuation of the silver price manipulation.
The paper silver price is as real as it gets. So what happened yesterday is nothing short of a miracle as the trading manoeuvres needed to break this are designed to be almost impossible to achieve.
My pleasure! I appreciate your support and kind words, as always :)
Yes, paper price suppression is real, but thankfully not 100% effective in holding the price down.
The manipulators did the same for gold from 2020 to 2024, but gold still managed to break out and surge over the past year or so.
I see silver following in gold's footsteps and I believe it has much further to run, so these are exciting times!
I upgraded from FREE to PAID subscriber not long ago. Great decision/very small high value investment.
More superb analysis from Jesse Colombo. The way he approaches the question from all 360 degrees and angles really is compelling and helps boost my confidence in my own investment decisions.
Thank you so much, Marty! I'm glad to have you on board.
More good content ahead :)
The crucial argument I'm not buying is the alleged rising demand for "renewable Energy" which in itself is utter Nonsens. There's no such thing.
In countries with high adoption rates of solar (and often poor sunshine per year) the grids almost parallel face severe bottle necks, overproduction without buyers to balance the excess supply. Spain was a classical example, GER had three weekends this spring where at least brownouts were just minutes away.
With each extra MW the problems rise.
Mark my words: latest in 2026 we will have a major event in Europe.
China and India are the drivers of solar adoption, now and for years to come, Europe is tiny in comparison.
Currently all "renewables" in China add up to 5.7 % with much faster growing coal plants. We'll watch and see. I btw own quite a bit of Au and Ag so wouldn't mind any increase, for whatever reason 😉
Yes, that's true. Thankfully, that photovoltaic-related demand doesn't rely on any single country that could change its policies on a whim.
I hear you. Philosophically (as a libertarian), I'm not a believer in government-driven or mandated transitions to "green" energy either, though I am a proponent if it's driven by the free market.
But photovoltaics have indeed been a major driver of demand for silver, though it's just one piece of the puzzle.
Now that silver has broken out and is generating more attention from investors, rising investment demand is likely to become an increasingly important driver of silver's price for the foreseeable future.
Thanks for the elaborate reply. Dont misread me the other parts of your article are well reveived. Let's agree to disagree and time will Tell. Cheers 👋
Of course - cheers to you as well :)
I'm fully in agreement with you that "renewable energy" is a darn stupid idea, which would find zero traction in a free market.
Nevertheless I am also in agreement with Jesse that the demand (which stems from government intervention) is real and unlikely to disappear in the short or medium term.
I'm wondering why you believe the paper price will collapse. I understand that in some sense the paper will be worth less because you may not get silver. But - at the same time - from the point of view of the shorts scrambling to cover - buying paper is as good as buying physical - no? And thus they will buy paper to cover or physical to deliver - whichever is cheaper - which should keep the prices in line - or am I missing something?
Paper ultimately returns to its intrinsic value, which is zero.
Remember all the paper promises Enron had on its books as they were declaring bankruptcy? According to management, they were making a fortune "trading energy."
The fact that people believe that the paper silver is as good as physical silver is what enabled the system to get so topheavy in paper. Things could get interesting when there is a large demand for physical. Can't use paper in your solar panel.
Yes - all true - but I don't think silver is big enough to break the whole system. Gold might well be - but
(a) even if silver goes to 1000 - that's only $262 billion in losses. Small bailout by current standards - and the government always bails out the banks. A cynical person might suggest that this is now the sole purpose of our government :-).
(b) I'm guessing that there is sufficient silver above ground (especially at $1000 per oz where all sorts of silver will magically appear) to meet the actual, real physical demand and thus the paper price will hold.
I think the system breaks when gold does this - not silver by itself.
I agree - I don't see silver alone breaking the system, but it will be just one component of the global financial reset.
Well said, George. Paper silver will likely continue to function normally in the shorter-term, but I see things breaking after silver has surged from $50 to $100 and beyond, especially in conjunction with a messy and chaotic global financial and monetary reset.
And you're right that there is no substitute for physical silver for the real industrial users who need it and can't use SLV or COMEX futures as a replacement! Haha.
In the shorter-term, yes, demand for "paper" silver is likely to contribute upward pressure on the price of silver across the board.
But I expect the run for physical silver and the dumping of paper silver to occur later on after silver has surged from $50 to $100 and beyond, especially in conjunction with a messy and chaotic global financial and monetary reset.
Financial stress causes things to break, and the derivatives market is basically a giant house of cards.
As Warren Buffett famously stated, "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked."
OK - I think we're broadly in agreement then. Silver won't break by itself. The failure of the derivative complex is not going to result just in silver paper being worthless - but potentially almost everything.
Have you read David Webb's "The Great Taking"? He argues that our institutions are preparing to sieze *all* paper (every investment in your brokerage account, margined or not) as collateral in the event of clearing house failures stemming from derivative market failure. I am not in a position to judge whether he is correct here - but it wouldn't surprise me.
The problem - as a retiree - is - what do I do about this?
I cannot liquidate everything and sit smauglike atop a pile of gold and jewels waiting for the crash :-) - (1) because I might be waiting for a long time without any income, (2) because it's unhealthy, and (3) because Bilbo and a scrum of thieving dwarves might show up at my mountain and pilfer it.
Even in terms of silver I cannot hold a trading position in physical - the spread on silver eagles - or even 1000oz bars - is too large to trade. And - as far as I can see there is little difference between
- a futures position
- an ETF position
- a COMEX receipt (the kind you get when you stand for delivery at most brokers - where you get a warehouse receipt but you still cannot actually take possession).
So I continue to trade - hoping I will judge the time to get out of Dodge correctly...
Thanks Jesse for your prompt, detailed and comprehensive analysis. The technical boxes are checked with SIL and SILJ knocking on the door. The technicals are in agreement with the fundamentals; 5 years of deficits and demand increasing. It is significant and potentially potent when the technicals and fundamentals concur.
The cup and handle is an extremely powerful chart pattern. This is not a 1-2 year pattern. The cup formed over 30 years with the handle forming over the past 14 years. It like a pressure cooker with the swap dealers attempting to keep the lid secure. They have had their way for a long time. However, they are about to discover that there is a new sheriff in town.
My pleasure! Thanks for reading it.
I agree - the technicals and fundamentals have all lined up in a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for silver.
I'm very excited about silver's prospects and I'm pleased to see it break out like it has over the past month.
Well known that most (not all) silver is mined as a by product mainly alongside copper (the primary target). Can someone explain how (all else equal) a copper price rocketing higher is Bullish for the silver price? Thanks.
It has to do with algorithms that arbitrage the price of copper and silver. I explained it in this piece from last September:
https://thebubblebubble.substack.com/p/how-a-copper-rebound-could-supercharge
Hi Jesse, thank you for an incredibly helpful and well researched article. Very encouraging! I hope that the silver breakout extends to gold? Question please? Another Substack site ( I can provide the link if you like) has posted the following: "Starting August 1, the U.S. will slap a 30% tariff on gold and silver imports from Mexico and the European Union. The immediate result? Imported silver will surge to $50 per ounce, and gold will flirt with an unprecedented $4,400 per ounce. " . However, I asked Chat GPT about this, and they did confirm the information about the tariffs, but did NOT agree about the effect on the price of metals worldwide. Would be grateful for your thoughts! Thank you as always, and very best wishes, RichardBear
My pleasure, Richard!
Yes, there is a good chance that silver's strong performance will also draw additional interest to precious metals overall, including gold.
As I see it now, gold is just consolidating in a healthy sideways manner as it works off its overbought condition after the strong gains earlier this year.
It may continue to do so as long as volume remains low in typical summer trading, but is likely to stage a breakout attempt after that and try to run from $3,500 to ~$4,000, which would give an additional boost to silver.
That potential tariff on August 1 is interesting and I will look into that further. I imagine it would boost U.S. domestic gold and silver prices on the futures market, but it's difficult to fully predict the effects.
If I find anything notable, I will definitely write an update about it, so stay tuned.
Thank you so much for your very helpful reply, very much appreciated! With very best wishes, RichardBear
Of course! Keep in touch :)
Can- do the shorts of naked bets take delivery from SLV to cover..?
Has the SLV...ever...been audited...by who ?
Or is it another...Ponzi on Ponzi...by bankers and lawyers/liars
That's a good question and I will look into that further. If I find anything interesting, I will definitely write about it here.
It doesn't have to be a *deilberate* ponzi.
The creators of SLV could be entirely honest, of good intent, and have done everything by the book - and even so - the fact that it can be shorted by other parties, allows for there to be more shareowners than actual silver.
💯🚀
You know it!
I added 100 Toz Ag maple coin year 2021 before the report. Been following Jesse work to build the confidence to pull the trigger. Will continue to do dollar cost averaging regardless of short term price movement. Wealth preservation begin with discipline to keep real money (Ag and Au). Why bank are called 银行 (it mean silver bank in Chinese). There must be a really good reason which we slow come to understand.
I'm glad to hear you're doing well and appreciate my reports! More good things ahead :)
Excellent piece once more, Jesse. Your insights on Silver have become part of my core reading now. So Thank You
Thanks, Rupesh! I'm glad to have you on board :)
Jesse, congratulations! Now is it appropriate to enter a leap call position in sil and silj in your opinion?
'This would cause the price of "paper" silver products to collapse'
Under what circumstances could we expect to see the prices of ETFs collapse? Would this happen at $50 silver or $150 silver?
Naive question: Are all silver or gold ETFs derivatives? Don't they keep silver in vaults? Are there any exceptional ETFs?
NO, we haven't crossed the finish line with silver yet, it is july 15 and
the HUI just collapsed. we need to go past the 431 high, and we
are now at like 418. the HUI is central to a real bull market in
silver (and gold), and it just hasn't happened yet.