I'm curious if margin debt is high within the market. I'm assuming it is because excessive risk taking bas been rewarded for 15 years, so it's been a positive feedback loop. An unwinding of margin debt could really accelerate and turbocharge a decline if the PPT remains on the sidelines.
Excellent and compelling report. My inner conspiracist tells me the organized support of the fake stock market (through the PPT) has been withdrawn, to lay this all at the feet of "Hitler." So, with the market now left to behave naturally and without the artificial support it enjoyed for the last 15 years, where a bear market was against the law, a collapse seems inevitable. If this were to happen, who will be left to buy overpriced homes? The economy has been asset price based throughout the bubble and if people's net worths plunge, they will slam their wallets shut.
Thank you! That's certainly possible, but the bubble was bound to burst no matter who is in office and, like I showed a few months ago, a recession was already brewing even before Trump won:
Another solid one, Jesse. Thank you.
Thanks!
I'm curious if margin debt is high within the market. I'm assuming it is because excessive risk taking bas been rewarded for 15 years, so it's been a positive feedback loop. An unwinding of margin debt could really accelerate and turbocharge a decline if the PPT remains on the sidelines.
Yes, margin debt is very high:
https://en.macromicro.me/charts/415/us-margin-debt
And, yes, I agree that the high levels of margin debt will exacerbate the bursting of the stock market bubble.
Thanks for reminding me about that. I need to write about that more and incorporate it into my reports.
Excellent and compelling report. My inner conspiracist tells me the organized support of the fake stock market (through the PPT) has been withdrawn, to lay this all at the feet of "Hitler." So, with the market now left to behave naturally and without the artificial support it enjoyed for the last 15 years, where a bear market was against the law, a collapse seems inevitable. If this were to happen, who will be left to buy overpriced homes? The economy has been asset price based throughout the bubble and if people's net worths plunge, they will slam their wallets shut.
Thank you! That's certainly possible, but the bubble was bound to burst no matter who is in office and, like I showed a few months ago, a recession was already brewing even before Trump won:
https://thebubblebubble.substack.com/p/is-gold-following-its-2007-2008-bullish
But I am a conspiracy theorist myself and nothing would surprise me.
Awesome write-up!
The only thing I would add, is that although Gold is in a Bull Market, a Precious Metals Bull Era only begins when a Stage Four SPX Decline begins.
We are very close - SPX is rolling over now.
Level of 5,425 is run for the hills - "Sell in May and Go Away"?
Charlie.
Lowercosta.com
Yes, I'd say there's a good chance the Stage Four has already begun, but some further confirmation is necessary as I wrote in this report.