Thanks again Jesse, an excellent comprehensive analysis of the market.
In my view, there are so many set ups for a Black Swan to come along, as with previous tops, we should be positioned accordingly, Long Gold and Silver, an appropriate percentage Short the Index's.
I'm really looking forward to the inevitable correction back to the Mean, for me,hopefully, the Monthly 100 EMA.
The coming months should really shake up those Manipulating Market Makers that have put a ceiling on Silver.
Thank you for the deep insight! I have a general question.
Why is it that most commodity funds (tracking bloomberg commodity fund as benchmark) and ETFs (PDBC for example) have been performing "poorly" since 2022? Of course, there is an explanation based on the teachings of the Austrian School of Economics, but I still find it difficult to understand what is causing the continuously rising retail prices, while I do not see significant increases in the futures markets for basic commodities in terms of dollars.
My pleasure! They did surge from 2020 to 2022, but have languished since then due to surging interest rates and the U.S. dollar (a rising dollar is bearish for commodities):
Since Gold became a Tier One asset on April 2019, the CBs have been accumulating Gold at the fastest rate since 1950. They know a Revaluation is the only way to prevent worldwide debt from spiralling over the cliff edge.
That will be stage one. Stage two will be to reopen the Gold window "closed temporarily" on 15 August 1971. Backing the USD 40% with Gold will try and prevent a Bond Market Crisis brewing in 2027 - the US Treasury needs folk to buy Bonds again at the long end not just short end.
Once the Gold has been advised "Correct" by auditors (poisoned chalice), and revalued at nearer $3,000 oz., PMs will be off to the races and Silver soar past $50 to new ATHs.
Since Aug 1971, the price/value of fiat as lost 98% against USD. Gold has not gone up it is still 1oz of Gold. It is the USD purchasing power going down!
Since Nixon's 1971 action, USD has fallen 84 times (84 X) against Gold. $35 X 84 = $2,940.
Got your physical yet whilst you still can get hold of it before the PM 2025 squeeze?
I haven’t looked into the funds beyond learning of their existence, so I don’t know re: technical analysis. The silver miners ETF might be something I look into; with the underlying silver thesis many of us adhere to, this could be an attractive proposition.
Great analysis, realistic that gives an accurate perspective of what lies ahead.
Gold is one of the best choices specially if recession comes.
Dollar as currency will be just a paper very devaluated against other currencies, this government’s economic policies will bring the whole world into a chaos.
Thanks again Jesse, an excellent comprehensive analysis of the market.
In my view, there are so many set ups for a Black Swan to come along, as with previous tops, we should be positioned accordingly, Long Gold and Silver, an appropriate percentage Short the Index's.
I'm really looking forward to the inevitable correction back to the Mean, for me,hopefully, the Monthly 100 EMA.
The coming months should really shake up those Manipulating Market Makers that have put a ceiling on Silver.
Thank you! Yes, you're right. If it's not one risk, it's another and they're probably going to coalesce around the same time.
Agreed - I think something big is afoot in silver. It's time for it to break free of the manipulation just like gold did a year ago.
We could have a bloodbath on Monday if the Asian trading suggests that ‘Covid 2.0’ is being taken ‘seriously’
Thankfully, as I understand it, the virus isn't actually outside of the lab and spreading.
The news announcement was just that the lab discovered another virus that has the potential to cause a pandemic.
The greater risk this week is the unwinding of the Japanese carry trade.
Thank you for the deep insight! I have a general question.
Why is it that most commodity funds (tracking bloomberg commodity fund as benchmark) and ETFs (PDBC for example) have been performing "poorly" since 2022? Of course, there is an explanation based on the teachings of the Austrian School of Economics, but I still find it difficult to understand what is causing the continuously rising retail prices, while I do not see significant increases in the futures markets for basic commodities in terms of dollars.
Thank you!
My pleasure! They did surge from 2020 to 2022, but have languished since then due to surging interest rates and the U.S. dollar (a rising dollar is bearish for commodities):
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=w&t=DX
But it looks like the dollar will pull back soon and is quite overvalued, so that should give commodities a boost.
Since Gold became a Tier One asset on April 2019, the CBs have been accumulating Gold at the fastest rate since 1950. They know a Revaluation is the only way to prevent worldwide debt from spiralling over the cliff edge.
That will be stage one. Stage two will be to reopen the Gold window "closed temporarily" on 15 August 1971. Backing the USD 40% with Gold will try and prevent a Bond Market Crisis brewing in 2027 - the US Treasury needs folk to buy Bonds again at the long end not just short end.
Once the Gold has been advised "Correct" by auditors (poisoned chalice), and revalued at nearer $3,000 oz., PMs will be off to the races and Silver soar past $50 to new ATHs.
Since Aug 1971, the price/value of fiat as lost 98% against USD. Gold has not gone up it is still 1oz of Gold. It is the USD purchasing power going down!
Since Nixon's 1971 action, USD has fallen 84 times (84 X) against Gold. $35 X 84 = $2,940.
Got your physical yet whilst you still can get hold of it before the PM 2025 squeeze?
Lowercosta.com
All great points that I agree with! Exciting times are ahead.
The fine folks at Sprott would seem to agree with you, Jesse: https://sprott.com/investor-relations/press-releases/sprott-launches-active-gold-silver-miners-etf/
As they should, being subscribers and readers of this newsletter! :)
Yes, I'm intrigued by that new ETF and I wonder if they incorporate technical analysis into their timing decisions. Do you know if they do?
I haven’t looked into the funds beyond learning of their existence, so I don’t know re: technical analysis. The silver miners ETF might be something I look into; with the underlying silver thesis many of us adhere to, this could be an attractive proposition.
.
Yes, I can definitely see the appeal. I'm going to read their prospectus to learn more.
Keep us posted, SVP. 👍
Will do!
Thanks Jessie, I am Paolo,a subscriber. Gold rose in 2000/2002 because Fed printed money. Today we are far from this.
O/T, this one informs us that the Treasury is spending 4x as much on silver as on gold: https://www.silver-phoenix500.com/article/gold-hoax-us-treasury-buying-more-silver-from-uk
Great analysis, realistic that gives an accurate perspective of what lies ahead.
Gold is one of the best choices specially if recession comes.
Dollar as currency will be just a paper very devaluated against other currencies, this government’s economic policies will bring the whole world into a chaos.
Thank you Jesse!👍🏻